Lower Sugarloaf Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

855
FXUS62 KKEY 191505
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
After several days of wet and thundery weather, drier conditions
have finally made a return to the Florida Keys. GOES visible
satellite imagery is depicting partly cloudy skies across the
Island Chain, with only isolated showers being detected in the
distant Straits of Florida. Surface analysis places a
quasistationary front attached to an area of low pressure off of
Nova Scotia now trekking eastward, with a modified continental
airmass overshadowing the Florida Peninsula owed to high pressure
parked over the Carolinas.
For the rest of today, rain chances appear much lower than the
past several days. This is stemming from much weaker steering
flow, coupled with a much drier tropospheric profile sampled in
this morning`s 12z sounding at KEY. The best chances for
measurable rainfall appear to be from any possible cumulus cloud
line that may form along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys, as
well as any convection over South Florida nudging southwestward.
The inherited forecast calls for low-end chance level PoPs (around
30%), and given this reasoning, this seems on track. No changes
proposed for this late morning update cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as drier air continues to
push across the Keys this afternoon and high pressure builds
across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light
to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday
through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
TAF period. An island cloud line may develop in the vicinity of
the terminals, although confidence is too low to include mention
of potential impacts in the TAFs at this time. Near-surface winds
will remain out of the north to northeast at 5 to 8 knots.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....DR
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion