Loyalton, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

646
FXUS63 KABR 071715
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures today will be around 10 degrees below normal
  in eastern SD and west central MN. On Monday, highs will be 5
  to 10 degrees above normal across the region.
- Mainly elevated smoke will move across the area Monday. Some of
  this smoke will near the surface with visibility reductions
  possible mainly west of the Missouri River Monday afternoon into
  Monday night.
- There is a 20% chance of showers and a few storms late tonight
  into Monday morning over potions of east central SD into west
  central MN. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A slight chance of showers and a few storms has been added around
the Watertown area (east central SD into west central MN) for
05-15Z Monday as the low level jet sets up and there is weak upper
level support. Patchy smoke was added to areas mainly west of the
MO River for Monday afternoon into Monday night for the smoke
nearing from MT and WY. This smoke may be extended farther out
into Tuesday morning, so stay tuned. Check out fire.airnow.gov
for the latest air quality information from the EPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Early this morning, there is a little light fog floating
around. Expect this may expand a bit more before sunrise then
quickly dissipate along with any frost as daytime heating takes
hold. Surface high pressure slides off to the southeast today and
southerly return flow sets up behind it producing gusts up to 25 mph
in central SD. Upper ridging begins to build in from the west today,
as well, helping to draw in seasonably warm air to the western half
of the cwa.
Unfortunately, by tonight, the HRRR starts to show a return of some
elevated smoke to the region. Adjusted the sky grids, accordingly,
as far in time as possible. By the end of the short term on Monday,
near sfc smoke begins creeping into areas west river. WAA and temps
ramp up on Monday with highs climbing 5 to 10 degrees above normal
across the forecast area, approaching 90 degrees across portions of
central SD.
Generally expecting dry conditions to persist. However, there is a
weak llj east of the Coteau on Monday. Coupled with some even weaker
shortwave activity and daytime heating, there may be enough
instability to fire off a shower or two. May need to add a pop
mention prior to 0z, but given lack of model agreement on timing and
placement left it out for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Monday evening, we find the upper level ridge just off to our west
over the Rockies. It stays just off to our west through the day
Tuesday and starts to move towards us Wednesday. Behind this ridge
is an upper level low over the Pacific Coast which will move east
through the second half of the week. Models still aren`t in
agreement as to what happens with this low. The EC shows it becoming
a negatively tilted trough, the GFS shows a somewhat similar story
although the angle is less extreme. The Canadian is an outlier with
the low actually making it across the Rockies and into South Dakota
for Saturday. But, no matter the solution, it does look like we have
some low pressure in store for next weekend.
Humidity and increased storm chances return to the region Wednesday
as some Gulf moisture is funneled into the area. At the moment
chances are still in the 20-30% range. To go with the low pressure
next weekend, there is an increase in showers/storm chances to 20-
40% Saturday, highest over the western portion of the forecast area.
Chances decrease Sunday. Temperatures during the period will be in
the normal to slightly above normal range with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. HRRR Smoke shows a large concentration of upper
level smoke Monday evening with some near surface smoke possibly on
the way for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.
Elevated smoke will move in on Monday, with near surface smoke
with the potential to reduce visibilities at airports near and
west of the MO River (PIR/MBG) Monday afternoon.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion