Lucknow, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

707
FXUS62 KCAE 231035
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
635 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, dry conditions, and hot temperatures expected
through mid-week. Rain chances will then be on the increase as a
cold front approaches by the end of the week. Cooler
temperatures return then behind the cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Hot and dry once again today.
Upper ridging to the west will slowly shift towards the area
leading to rising 500mb heights. This will lead to increasing
temperatures today, a few degrees higher than yesterday with
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Low level moisture advection
over the last 24 hours or so will lead to higher dew points as
well with heat indices topping out near 95. Deep layer moisture
still remains limited with forecast soundings still showing
significant dry air aloft. While hires guidance indicates the
potential of developing storms along the sea breeze, guidance
keeps any storms east of the area, along the Coastal Plain. Lows
tonight a few degrees higher as well, in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry and hot conditions.
Deep trough moving into the lower Mississippi River Valley
region on Wednesday will bring a southwesterly wind pattern into
the forecast area. This will continue to bring moisture
northward, along with some good warm advection. Pwat values will
increase to around 1.8 inches through Wednesday night. Even
though moisture increases, rain chances will remain very low
across the area on Wednesday due to lack of significant
shortwave energy, along with height rises across the cwa. Those
height rises, along with low-level warm advection and a good
amount of sunshine, will bring another hot afternoon with highs
in the middle 90s on tap for many. Overnight lows in the mid
60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and
  Friday.
- Forecast is uncertain this coming weekend but it does look
  cooler and drier.
sharp upper trough west of the region to start off the day
Thursday will continue to push eastward into the weekend. This
will bring a cold front into the area Friday. Ahead of the
front, pwats continue increasing to around 2 inches by Friday.
This moisture increase along with the approaching cold front,
lowering heights aloft, and shortwave energy will cause an
increase in rain chances through the day Thursday, with more
widespread rainfall then possible Thursday night and into Friday
as the front moves through. Once we move into the weekend, the
front moves through and there should be a drop in rain chances,
although at least some scattered shower/storms will remain
possible each afternoon.
As for temperatures, Thursday is still being advertised by the
NBM as being rather hot, but there is some uncertainties due to
the amount of cloud cover and timing of any rainfall in the
afternoon. Would not be surprised if high temperatures come in
slightly cooler Thursday. By Friday the front moves through and
temperatures turn cooler for the remainder of the forecast
period, with highs in the low to middle 80s. Lows in the 60s
most nights.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue.
Light winds and mostly clear skies in place with some passing
high clouds over the terminals. Stratus and fog remained well to
the southeast of the terminals early this morning based on
satellite observations and it remains unlikely that any
restrictions impact the terminals as this fog and stratus will
dissipate shortly after sunrise. Light and variable winds and
passing high clouds will continue through the TAF period so have
one line TAFs for the next 24 hours.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
the end of the week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions on
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion