Luray, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

466
FXUS63 KICT 031120
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and mild through Saturday; rain chances return Saturday night
  into next week
- Below normal temperatures arrive early next week&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
As of 345 AM Friday, a highly amplified midlevel, shortwave ridge
axis remains across the central and southern Plains. This ridge axis
will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Cyclonic midlevel flow continues to overspread the High Plains,
allowing lee surface troughing to deepen. The associated pressure
gradient will contribute to southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph with
the greatest speeds across central KS. Transitioning into Saturday,
model guidance is in good agreement with a shortwave trough ejecting
from the southwest US into central High Plains. Its approach will
further strengthen the surface pressure gradient and the low-level
wind profile. Latest short term guidance continues to project
boundary layer mixing heights up to 800 mb Saturday afternoon.
ECMWF/NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggests 850 mb wind speeds will
meet/exceed 45 mph, especially across central KS. As such, southerly
wind gusts up to 50 mph are likely Saturday afternoon/evening,
especially across central KS.
By Sunday, the surface trough axis will extend from southwest KS
into north central KS. A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening along the front across portions of central KS
as surface convergence and midlevel divergence increases across the
frontal zone. ECMWF and GFS forecast soundings reveal modest lapse
rate profiles (7-8 C/km) with veering and acceleration of the
vertical wind profile (30-40 kt of effective shear). As such, a
strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon and
evening.
The frontal zone will slowly move across the forecast area Monday
into Tuesday, setting the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm chances (30-50%). Temperatures behind the front
will be much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. A continued
active midlevel pattern will set the stage for more rain chance
the middle and late portions of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
will increase by 15-16Z to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. The
strongest gusts are expected at RSL and GBD. LLWS conditions are
expected late this evening through the end of the period across
central KS as 45-50 kt LLJ near 1.4kft develops.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion