Luverne, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

477
FXUS63 KFGF 130912
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
412 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday into Monday. The main hazards will be hail to the size
  of quarters and gusty winds to 70 mph.
- Well above average temperatures continue into next week.
  Active pattern continues through early next week, including
  periodic chances for strong to severe thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...Synopsis...
Ridging continues to build into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region today into Sunday. Upstream H5 troughs traverse the flow,
bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms today,
mainly west of the Red River Valley. As the pattern shifts slowly
east, thunderstorm chances follow heading into Sunday and Monday.
There will be enough instability Sunday evening for a mention of
severe thunderstorms. For Monday, additional showers and perhaps
strong thunderstorms remain possible as shortwave activity continues
traversing southwest flow. Heading into Tuesday, a cold front
approaches the area, with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler temps are expected heading into Wednesday and
Thursday.
...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Sunday...
Instability across the Northern Plains will increase today through
Sunday, with SBCAPE values increasing to near 3000 J/Kg Sunday
afternoon. Low to mid level shear is supportive of potential MCS
development with the potential for damaging wind gusts and
large hail. Tornado risk is evident, but will be highest in
association with afternoon or early evening supercells that
develop in central and eastern North Dakota. As the evening
progresses, clusters and line segments show much better support.
...Active Pattern Continues into early Next Week...
A rather persistent blocking pattern will keep southwest flow
situated over eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota heading
into Monday and Tuesday. An upper low is expected to form and move
northeast along the flow heading into Monday afternoon and evening.
This will bring another chance for strong thunderstorms into parts
of eastern North Dakota and possibly northwest Minnesota.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
MVFR to low VFR conditions at the MN TAF sites and KDVL, and
ceilings should lower with those locations at IFR or LIFR by
morning. Some signal for fog is still around in eastern ND and
northwestern MN, but not confident in where with all the ongoing
clouds. Have some reductions to vis particularly at KBJI, but
kept it 1SM for now. All sites should return to VFR by mid-day.
Kept the Red River airports VFR for now. Winds will shift
around to the east and pick up to around 10 kts by tomorrow
morning.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion