Mackey, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS63 KPAH 231129
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Off and on rounds of showers and storms remain in the forecast
  today and tomorrow with activity peaking early this afternoon,
  and then again overnight into early Wednesday.
- A few storms could be strong to severe with hail and gusty
  winds the main threat. Brief heavy rainfall may also lead to
  localized flooding.
- Slightly below normal temperatures in the latter half of the
  week rebound back to normal by the weekend with dry weather
  conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A large area of troughing from Utah to the western Great Lakes
will continue to keep us in a fairly wet pattern, for the first
time in weeks, over the next 2-3 days.
Through daybreak, light winds and mostly clear skies coupled
with wet ground from Monday`s rains is leading to areas of fog.
Conditions appear likely enough for dense fog that an advisory
has been issued for a couple rows of our northern and
northwestern most counties and will be watching for possible
expansion. An area of locally diffluent upper flow is aiding in
developing scattered thunderstorms over Tennessee and satellite
shows some hints of that winding back into southeast Missouri
and a stray storm or two may work into the area working with
around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE for elevated parcels and at
least a bit of surface-based instability.
We get a push of WSW flow aloft in the late morning and
afternoon producing both jet-level ascent (DCVA) and lower layer
warm advection. Satellite/model observations show PWATs
increasing to about 1.7-1.9 inches by late morning and
afternoon. I think the peak of activity may time out slightly
faster than current CAM guidance suggests based on the position
of observed features and reflected that in the forecast. This
results in peak coverage around 20z or so before starting to
taper off a little ahead of the next wave. With modest
instability and a little bit of shear (sfc-6km about 35-40 kt)
can`t completely rule out a severe storm or two, although with
PWATs around 1.8 to 1.9 may have to watch more for localized
flooding today.
The main trough gets closer tonight into Wednesday with
250-300mb flow increasing to about 100-110 kts to our
northwest. The ECMWF deterministic model is about 6-12 hours
faster with frontal passage with this system, and is about 3-4
mb stronger with the parent low over central Illinois. The only
obvious difference in the two is the ECMWF generates vigorous
convection over central MO and appears to be deepening the low
based on grid-scale convective feedback. The overall synoptic
picture though supports shower and a few thunderstorms through
the overnight and at least the possibility of a more focused
line area of storms immediately ahead of the cold front during
the day Wednesday. 0-6 km shear remains about 40 kts, with low
level shear increasing to 15-20 kts which opens up the hodograph
just enough to be worth watching. At the end of the day I think
rain/clouds stability probably wins out however, limiting
severe threat, but localized flooding will remain possible.
Once the main trough clears conditions dry out once again with
highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s through
the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Several flight weather factors today and through tonight. The
first areas of locally dense fog mixing upward possibly creating
local MVFR cigs through about 8-9 am. An area of rain and
showers with a brief period of thunderstorms is then forecast in
the afternoon and early evening. Off and on (mostly on) rain
then persists through the overnight with either lower ceiling or
visibility restrictions then anticipated in the late overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>088.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>087.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion