Manfred, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

429
FXUS63 KBIS 181943
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
243 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers, along with a few rumbles of thunder, remain in the
  forecast through Friday. The highest rain chances are over
  south central and southeastern parts of the state this
  evening. Then Friday the highest chances will be along and
  east of the James River Valley.
- Severe weather is not expected, though periods of heavy rain
  may bring some localized minor flooding at times.
- High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s and 60s Friday,
  then warming into the 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Low
  temperatures will be in the 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Currently a double barrel upper low is positioned over the
Northern Plains. The western low is over northern Montana,
while the second and stacked low is over northeast South
Dakota. This entails the surface low is also in northeast South
Dakota. The two upper lows are slowly rotating counter-
clockwise around each other, so the surface low in SD is slowly
moving north.
At the surface, multiple rains bands are spiraling counter-
clockwise through in the southern and eastern half of North
Dakota. As the surface low slowly progresses north and slightly
east, the rain bands will slowly expand north and east. This
trend will continue overnight. Aloft the double lows will
combine over the Dakotas and begin the eastward progression out
of here tonight. Friday the rain will end west to east
naturally as the low moves east. High temperatures while being in
the backside of this system will remain below average in the
60s in the central and east. The western part of the state will
be in the upper 60s as a shortwave ridge moves in. This weekend
will be dry and at or above average for temperatures with highs
in the 70s and 80s once again.
The weak ridging pattern will break down Monday when an upper
low dives south from Canada into Idaho. North Dakota will
briefly be in weak southwest flow Monday. Showers and maybe a
thunderstorm will then be possible across the southwest and
south central Monday from this. That low then could move east
through the Central Plains and produce more rain in the southern
half of the state later next week. Long term models and the CPC
are showing continued above average temperatures through the
end of October.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
LIFR CIGs are present in the south and east, especially in the
rain bands. MVFR to VFR elsewhere. Bands of rain will move east
to west across most of the state through Friday morning. A few
thunderstorms are possible in the east this evening. Winds will
stay around 12kts, except in the southeast where gusts around
25 are possible from the east. CIG raise towards the end of the
period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion