Manor, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

865
FXUS62 KJAX 010144
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
944 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions Continue through the
  Weekend. High Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf & Small Craft
  Advisories Remain in Effect.
- Coastal Flood Threat Increases Beginning on Thursday. Minor to
  Moderate Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide
  from Thursday through the Weekend.
- Showers & Thunderstorms Increase from Thursday through Sunday.
  Multiple Rounds of Heavy Downpours and Isolated Embedded
  Thunderstorms are Expected. Localized Flooding Possible at
  Coastal and Low-lying Locations.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Evening surface analysis depicts the eye of Category 1 Hurricane
Imelda (978 millibars) positioned about 385 miles to the east of
St. Augustine Beach. Imelda is beginning to accelerate east-
northeastward towards Bermuda. Meanwhile, coastal troughing
remains in place across our local Atlantic waters. Otherwise,
strong high pressure (1035 millibars) was positioned over Hudson
Bay, Canada, with this feature building southeastward and driving
a cold front southward through the Mid-Atlantic states, the Ohio
Valley, and the Great Lakes region. Aloft...a cutoff trough over
the Appalachians was sinking slowly southward as ridging over the
Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley slowly builds
eastward. Beneath this ridge, a shortwave trough located near the
Arklatex region was progressing southeastward. Latest GOES-East
derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a slightly
drier air mass was advecting southward across southeast GA, where
PWAT values have fallen below 1.5 inches, while values were closer
to 1.7 inches along the northeast FL coast and across north
central FL. Convergent low level north-northeasterly flow was
generating isolated showers along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in
northeast FL, with a few sprinkles also located to the west of
Waycross in southeast GA and over southern portions of the
Suwannee Valley. Low and mid level cloud cover remains in place
across our area, with breezy north-northeasterly winds prevailing
along the northeast FL coast and diminishing winds inland.
Temperatures at 01Z were in the 70s area-wide, with dewpoints
mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Shower chances will diminish overnight as a drier air mass
gradually filters into our region. Low stratus ceilings may
develop late tonight, particularly across northeast and north
central FL. Our local pressure gradient will remain tight at
coastal locations, keeping a north-northeasterly breeze in place.
Winds inland will continue to diminish overnight. Breaks in the
cloud cover across southeast GA will develop after midnight,
allowing lows to fall to the low and middle 60s inland, ranging to
around 70 at coastal locations. Lows will otherwise fall to the
mid and upper 60s for inland northeast and north central FL, with
breezy conditions keeping coastal lows generally in the mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Strong high pressure will be located to the north Wednesday, with an
inverted trough along the coastal Atlantic waters. An enhanced
pressure gradient between these two features will result in elevated
onshore flow. With the ridge in place, inland areas will be dry,
with greatest chances for showers along the NE FL coast due to
convergence associated with coastal trough. Highs Wednesday will
range from the lower 80s at the coast, to the mid 80s inland.
For Wednesday night through Thursday, the high will become
stronger, and centered more toward the northeast. The troughing
will remain along the coastal Atlantic waters. The best chances
for showers Wednesday night will remain along the coast of NE FL.
The best chances for showers Thursday will generally be east of a
line from Gainesville to Brunswick. The chances will spread
across all coastal areas of SE GA and NE FL Thursday night.
There is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms to be embedded with
showers Wednesday through Thursday night.
Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal this period.
With the onshore flow, the coolest day time readings will be near
the coast, with the coolest night time readings inland.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High pressure will remain centered to the northeast Friday and
Saturday, with inverted troughing over the coastal waters.
Precipitation chances will increase Friday into Saturday, with
greatest chances along the coast.
The high will move further away to the northeast Sunday through
Tuesday. The moist onshore flow will continue, with precipitation
chances spreading across area.
Daytime temperatures are expected to be near normal inland, and near
to below near the coast. Overnight lows will trend above normal this
period, especially near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Heavy showers moving over the VQQ terminal through around 01Z this
evening will likely produce brief periods of IFR visibilities.
Showers should then dissipate by 02Z, with MVFR ceilings expected
to prevail through around 06Z. MVFR ceilings are also likely to
prevail through the entire period at SGJ. VFR ceilings around
3,500 - 4,500 feet elsewhere this evening will likely deteriorate
to MVFR towards 06Z, with IFR conditions then expected to develop
after 06Z at VQQ. Ceilings at VQQ should lift to MVFR by around
12Z Wednesday. Ceilings elsewhere will likely lift to VFR before
15Z. Northerly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots
overnight at SGJ, while north to northeasterly winds elsewhere
remain in the 5-10 knot range through around 14Z Wednesday. Winds
will then shift to northeasterly and will increase to around 15
knots and gusty at SGJ towards 15Z, with speeds elsewhere
increasing to 10-15 knots by 16Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist across the coastal
waters through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Seas of
9-15 feet tonight will subside to the 7-10 foot range on
Wednesday. Hurricane Imelda will continue to accelerate east-
northeastward towards Bermuda, with strong high pressure expected
to build southeastward towards New England by midweek. This
feature will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard on
Wednesday night and Thursday, creating strengthening north-
northeasterly winds with occasional gusts to Gale Force expected
both near shore and offshore. Coastal troughing will also sharpen
over our local waters, generating showers and embedded
thunderstorms beginning on Wednesday night. Winds will shift to
easterly from Friday through the weekend as strong high pressure
shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
We issued a Coastal Flood Advisory this evening for the St. Johns
River basin to the south of downtown Jacksonville, as well as for
coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties. Water levels have risen
into minor flood stage all along the St. Johns River during this
evening`s high tide, with elevated levels rising to minor flood
also occurring along the Atlantic coast and within the
Intracoastal Waterway in St. Johns and Flagler Counties. This
trend should continue through the high tide cycles at these
locations on Wednesday before a more significant push of
northeasterly winds and the approach of the full moon bring more
widespread coastal and tidal flooding beginning late this week,
when Coastal Flood Watches may be posted. The latest PETSS
guidance is suggesting potential for Moderate flooding from Friday
through the upcoming weekend, bringing higher confidence for
water levels reaching 2 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) in
the St. Johns River Basin, and into the 2 to 2.5 ft above MHHW
along the Atlantic beach front locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  85  62  80 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  67  81  71  79 /  20   0  10  30
JAX  67  84  70  82 /  20  10  10  40
SGJ  71  83  72  83 /  30  10  30  50
GNV  67  87  69  85 /  20  10  10  20
OCF  68  87  70  85 /  20  10  10  30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-138-
     233-325-333-633.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion