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Matlacha, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS62 KTBW 291805
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 205 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Tropical Storm Imelda continues to spin over the Bahamas this afternoon. NHC expects the storm to make a sharp eastward turn sometime between today and tomorrow. This will allow more dry air to filter into the area as it wraps around the backside of Imelda. This morning`s sounding already showing a bit of dry air in the mid and upper levels. The dry air will limit rain chances through Wednesday. However, a few isolated to scattered showers could work their way over from the NE heading SW, though likely will not make it all the way to the coast.

Thursday into Friday an upper level trough coupled with a surface boundary will push into the area bringing some extra moisture. Rain chances with increases as well as the east to northeast winds as the pressure gradient tightens up. This pattern hangs around through the weekend as the boundary lingers over FL.

&&

.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected, with a few exceptions inland where some low clouds continue to linger. A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon. Below VFR conditions possible tomorrow as guidance is showing another morning of low clouds and possible patchy fog, similar to this morning. Conditions should improve by mid morning.

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

North to northeast winds expected through the remainder of the week as Tropical Storm Imelda moves east, away from the FLorida coast and a frontal boundary drops down over the state. Winds stay around 10 to 15kts the next couple of days, likely increasing to advisory levels by Thursday afternoon. Winds begin to subside over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

A bit of dry air will filter into the area as Tropical Storm Imelda turns east, away from Florida between today and tomorrow. However, RH values will remain above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 75 90 74 91 / 10 20 20 30 GIF 74 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 20 SRQ 75 89 73 90 / 10 10 20 20 BKV 70 88 68 89 / 10 20 10 10 SPG 76 87 75 88 / 10 10 20 20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion

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