Mayfield, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

210
FXUS63 KICT 131941
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms are possible for central Kansas and
parts of south central Kansas for late tonight into tomorrow morning
- Another round of storms are expected to redevelop tomorrow
  afternoon, a few strong to marginally severe storms could
  affect locations west of I-135 after 5pm
- Unsettled weather pattern looks to be shaping up for Tuesday
  through Thursday next week with additional rounds of
  showers/storms
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a well pronounced
upper trough over the Rockies centered in Utah. This system will
continue a eastward track and spark off numerous showers/storms
over the high plains and western Kansas this afternoon/evening.
The line of showers and storms will move slowly east tonight
with a gradual decrease in coverage expected overnight. There
will be some residual activity affecting locations mainly west
of I-135 Sunday morning with low chance of producing strong or
severe weather given weak shear/elevated instability. Otherwise,
the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front over
western Kansas will destabilize in the afternoon and set the
stage for a second round of storms. Given the increased
instability from strong daytime heating and just enough wind
shear aloft this second round of storms could yield a few
strong to marginally severe storms. The storms would then track
eastward into portions of central/south central Kansas mainly
after 5pm. Expecting the coverage of storms to decrease shortly
after sunset with loss of daytime heating.
Upper level system will pivot northeast for late Sunday night into
Monday with dry weather conditions expected. Meanwhile weather
models and associated ensembles show a upper level trough axis being
carved out over the northern plains on Tuesday with a slow east
migration heading into Thursday. This could lead to a more unsettled
weather pattern for the central plains as a series of short waves
are projected to rotate through the upper trough axis. The first
short wave will push a cold front southward from Nebraska into
Kansas on Tuesday/Tuesday night which will bring the next chance of
showers/storms to the area by Tuesday night. The surface front looks
to slow down or possibly stall out over Kansas for Wednesday with
another round of showers/storms redeveloping. The activity could
linger into Thursday before the upper level trough finally shifts
east of Kansas. The prolonged rainfall could cause some flooding
problems along with a chance for some strong storms to materialize.
There is a signal for some elevated activity to develop yet again on
Friday as another upper wave drops southward through the backside of
upper trough axis.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail through 06Z, then chances for
showers and storms to increase Sunday morning.
Early this afternoon, southerly to southwesterly winds were
generally around 5 to 10 knots with portions of central Kansas
seeing wind gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Winds may increase
slightly later this afternoon with the potential for wind gusts
around 25 to 30 knots across central Kansas for a brief period
of time. Winds should decrease back to around 5 to 10 knots
after 00Z.
Late tonight into early Sunday morning, showers and storms will
move eastward off of the High Plains and into portions of
central and south-central Kansas. Some of this activity could
bring small hail and gusty winds, but the intensity of these
storms should be on the decrease as they move eastward Sunday
morning. Still, vis and cig cats may be impacted at any site
that see a stronger storm Sunday morning.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion