Mc Cutcheon Field, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

464
FXUS62 KMHX 200712
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area on Saturday and stall
offshore. A coastal trough or coastal low may then develop along
the stalled front early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Overnight to early morning Saturday...As of 845 PM
Friday...Overnight looks to be another strong candidate for fog,
equally or more dense as this morning given uptick in low-level
moisture behind this afternoon`s seabreeze. Ambient environment
will be highly favorable with clear skies and light to calm
winds. Foggy conditions could begin to set in just a couple
hours after sunset, but densest fog is most likely pre- dawn
Saturday. While conditions are fog free right now, a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued from 2am to 10am Saturday given the
high confidence in impactful fog. Pressure gradient tightens a
tad along the coast early morning Saturday, which may be enough
to mix out any fog that may form along the immediate coast.
Today...As of 0145 Saturday...Coastal trough will continue to
sharpen off SECONUS coast through period as Plains upper low
continues to shift Eward. Weaker vort max will migrate across
the Carolinas in the afternoon ahead of this feature. After
depicting a distinct closed low migrating along the coastal
trough, most high-res guidance has backed off this solution but
continue to show healthy NEerly flow across the region as
trough sharpens and Canadian high pressure wedges into the mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas. Trended slightly higher with forecast
winds, but the main impact of this trend is for precip risk to
trend down tomorrow, threatening mainly the Outer Banks as
deeper moisture (and therefore shower/thunderstorm chances)
remains over open water. NEerly flow will help nudge temps down
a couple degrees from yesterday, but MaxTs still touch the mid
to upper 80s inland and around 80 coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0215 Saturday...Weak shortwave trough axis aloft pivots
through the FA, sharpening the coastal trough offshore of
SECONUS while a weak and dry backdoor front slowly sinks
through the area. Weak and sinking front will keep low level mixing
in place, and coupled with the s/w aloft will increase cloud
coverage, all of which should keep any dense fog threat at bay
for Sunday morning. But, will limit MinTs compared to the last
few night, low to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s Inner Banks,
a degree or two either side of 70 OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12:45 AM Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warming trend through mid-week
- Pattern becomes more unsettled starting Wednesday
An upper ridge will build into the area to start the period. At the
surface, high pressure will spread south across the eastern CONUS
with a coastal low along a stalled front just offshore. Increasing
heights will start a warming trend that will last through mid-week.
Highs on Sunday will range from the mid-80s across the coastal plain
to the mid-70s along the OBX where NE flow will keep things a touch
cooler. By Wednesday, highs will be near 90 across the coastal plain
and near 80 at the beaches. The aforementioned coastal low should
keep the majority of precip offshore, but there`s a slight chance
for some showers to skirt the immediate coast on Sunday. This low
will move to the northeast and farther from our shore throughout the
day, which will keep then keep the forecast dry on Monday as high
pressure expands across the area and upper ridging builds from the
south. A mid-level shortwave will pass over the area on Tuesday,
which may be able to support a few isolated showers near the coast,
but most of the area should remain dry.
The upper level pattern will become more interesting by mid-week as
an upper trough digs across the central plains and becomes cutoff
east of the Rockies. The eventual strength and movement of this
feature will greatly impact future surface features, but guidance
agrees on it being slow to move across the plains and then lingering
over the Ohio River Valley late week through at least the first half
of the weekend. This broad troughing across the eastern CONUS will
support daily shower and thunderstorm chances across ENC through the
end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z SUNDAY/...
As of 0140 Saturday...VFR with clear skies and light to calm
winds with some patchy fog beginning to develop at 6Z TAF
issuance. Main concern is once again dense fog development given
decoupled winds and clear skies, enhanced further by a modest
uptick in low-level moisture behind yesterday afternoon`s
seabreeze. Guidance has backed off through the day Friday in how
excited it is for the threat, and the footprint did shrink.
Will continue subIFR forecast for much of the night, but have
started to lean toward a more optimistic forecast i.e. delaying
the start of IFR fog and the duration and overall areal coverage
of the densest fog, which is still expected to be in the early
morning hours before sunrise.
Fog burns off after sunrise, once again giving way to mostly
sunny skies through fairweather diurnal CU and increasing upper
level clouds offshore and VFR flight cats. Pressure gradient
tightens between sharpening coastal trough offshore and high
pressure wedging in from the N, leading to an increase in
NEerly winds, strongest along the immediate coast. OBX terminals
could see some gustiness, 15-20 kt at times.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
As of 1:15 AM Saturday...
Daytime VFR conditions should persist through early next week,
although chances for late night/early morning fog and low stratus
will be possible. The pattern becomes more unsettled by mid-week
with greater PoPs bringing increased chances for sub-VFR
conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Night/...
As of 0245 Saturday...Excellent boating conditions if just
looking at winds/seas, but fog potentially dropping VIS less
than a mile at times for inside and nearshore waters. Light and
variable winds inside through early morning with coastal waters
winds NEerly 10-12kt. Seas through the morning 2ft@8-9sec, with
glass inside. Surface trough off the coast of Florida is
forecast to slowly sharpen through SAT while high pressure
wedges inland, and the tightening pressure gradient will result
in strengthening NEerly winds, 10-15G20kt by noonish. Winds
continue to strengthen through the overnight with 15-20G25kt
over outer waters expected shortly after midnight. Coastal water
SCAs have been issued beginning around this time tomorrow
night.
Dry forecast for bulk of marine zones, though GStream will
probably see some showers, maybe a tstorm or two this afternoon
and overnight.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...
As of 1:30 AM Saturday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs have been issued for all coastal waters
- Elevated seas and longer period swells from distant Gabrielle
possible mid-week
NE winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt will persist through
early Monday when winds will decrease to 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-
20 kt. Winds will decrease to 10-15 kt and veer to the south on
Tuesday and southwest on Wednesday. Although Gabrielle will remain
far from our coast, seas will start at 4-6 ft early Sunday and build
to 5-8 ft by the end of the day. Seas will start to improve for the
northern and southern waters on Monday, but 6-7 ft seas are forecast
to linger across the central waters through Tuesday afternoon.
Periods will increase from 6-7 seconds early Sunday to 11 seconds on
Monday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-
     044>047-079-080-090>092-193-194-198.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC/RJ
MARINE...CEB/OJC

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion