Mc Donald, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

014
FXUS64 KMAF 090527
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- A low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly
  south of the Interstate 10 corridor and in the vicinity of the
  Guadalupe Mountains.
- Temperatures remain slightly above normal in the upper 80s to mid
  90s across most of the region through the next several days.
- Mainly dry weather conditions expected Wednesday through Friday.
  Isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20%) will be possible by
  the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Current satellite imagery depicts an upper-level ridge building in
from the Desert Southwest into southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Station observations also show a boundary situated across south of
the TX/Mexico border extending through the Gulf. This boundary is
keeping the remnant moisture from post-tropical storm Lorena,
resulting in low (10-20%) rain/storm chances this afternoon across
the Guadalupe, Davis Mountains, Presidio Valley/along the Rio
Grande, and Lower Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings display DCAPE
values and "inverted-V" profiles with low PWATs. Therefore, the
primary concerns with the strongest storms will be frequent
lightning and brief gusty winds. The moisture from post-tropical
storm Lorena has also aided in morning to early afternoon cloudy
days across the region keeping temperatures at or below normal for
this time of year. As a result, high temperatures are forecast to
reach the mid 80s to mid 90s regionwide this afternoon.
Tuesday, a warmer and drier pattern takes shape as the upper-level
ridge continues to slide eastward, increasing thicknesses and
subsidence across the region. Highs are expected to reach the upper
80s to mid 90s, besides locations along the Presidio and Rio Grande
river valleys getting up to the high 90s to low 100s. Guidance has
the region on the periphery of the ridge which shifts much of the
region to northwesterly flow aloft. Guidance also has surface
troughing settling over southern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon,
providing a source of ascent for the potential of storm development,
especially for areas across southeast New Mexico late afternoon into
early evening. There is a lot of discrepancies among CAMs,
therefore, confidence is low given the lack of low-level moisture
during this timeframe. Nonetheless, most areas look to remain dry
tomorrow.
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The upper-level ridge will continue to build across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico through the middle to latter part of the
week. Dry weather conditions are expected Wednesday-Friday as
deep layer subsidence holds strong over our entire forecast area
underneath this feature. Temperatures will continue to average
about 3-6 degrees above normal through the middle to latter part
of the week, with highs generally forecast to range from around 90
degrees to the mid 90s each day, except for 80s in the higher
terrain and in the upper 90s to around 103 along the Rio Grande.
The upper-level ridge axis will shift into the Mississippi Valley
and ArkLaTex region on Saturday as the next upper-level trough
lifts into the Rocky Mountains. Southwesterly flow aloft may take
shape across southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas this
weekend ahead of the trough axis. Shortwave impulses embedded
within the southwest flow combined with sufficient moisture and
instability may bring a low (for now 10-20 percent) chance of
showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast over portions of
southeast New Mexico and Permian Basin Saturday afternoon and
evening, with other isolated showers and storms also possible in
the higher terrain. Temperatures remain slightly above normal
through the weekend, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for
most, except for readings in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees
along the Rio Grande. Morning lows will mostly be in the 60s
across the region, except for 50s in the higher terrain and lower
70s along the Rio Grande.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions continue. Light southeasterly flow remains into the
day tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  65  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  65  94  64 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   90  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  65  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  62  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  56  87  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  65  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   91  65  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     93  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...93

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion