Mc Farlan, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

518
FXUS62 KRAH 271832
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front over the Coastal Plain will drift slowly
SE before stalling near the coast tonight and Sunday. Meanwhile, an
upper level trough to our west will weaken and lift northeast into the
Mid-Atlantic region through Sunday. A tropical cyclone near northeast
Cuba could approach the Carolina coast Monday or Tuesday, but is
expected to remain offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...
Heavy rain threat coming to an end this round, lingers through early
evening in the NE.
Plenty of low stratus and fog expected tonight.
Mid to upper level dry air has surged into western and central NC
from the south this afternoon as the upper low lingers over the
southern Appalachians. The deepest moisture has been pushed to the
Coastal Plain, soon to be east of I-95 by mid-evening. The synoptic
front is weak and hard to find, but lingers in the Coastal Plain.
Several slow moving bands of convective rainfall will affect areas
mainly from Rocky Mount to Roanoke Rapids and points north and east
into VA though the afternoon. We will continue to monitor for the
flash flood potential in that region. Otherwise, we heavily relied
on the CAMS over the NBM for the first period of the forecast
through midnight tonight as they are verifying much better. The CAMS
suggested scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening, with
the highest probabilities in the mountains into the NW under the
upper low and favorable lift areas and over the Coastal Plain.
A few light showers may continue overnight. However, the big story
overnight will be the likely development of low clouds and some dense
fog. The higher probabilities will be in the eastern Piedmont
eastward through the Coastal Plain of dense fog, with stratus likely
elsewhere. Lows will be in the 60s. Additional QPF after 00z this
evening should be a quarter inch or less east and far NW, and very
little elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...
Drier trends continue for Sunday, only slight chance of a shower
now.
Rain chances return from the SE late Sunday night.
The front is expected to be along the coast with the deep moisture
pushed well east of our region Sunday. However, a low level NE flow
will be undercut by the south/southwest flow aloft. There will be
plenty of low clouds early, then some breaks will be possible in the
afternoon before deeper moisture is expected to spread back into the
region Sunday night. A light shower will be possible with the
residual upper low nearby. Highs generally in the mid 70s to lower
80s depending on the extent of the cloud cover that lingers. There
is an increasing chance of showers, especially in the SE late Sunday
night as bands of showers approach the coast from the SE and weaken
as they move inland late. Lows in the 60s to near 70 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 232 PM Saturday...
* Tropical Depression Nine still the main focus for next week, with
  two potential scenarios possible
The exact track of T.D. Nine is still the source of debate among the
latest physics based and AI models especially from Tuesday onward,
but there have been some hints in the guidance to suggest an
increased potential for a right turn away from the coast. Now
clearly that is not to say NC is out of the woods, there are still a
large number of individual ensemble tracks in both the traditional
physics and emerging AI models that maintain the idea of a path near
the coast (or even inland) early next week. NHC forecasts have
nudged the storm a bit to the east compared to previous cycles but
uncertainty remains high during this period and it will be some time
until a better model consensus is achieved. One key synoptic factor
worth watching is the upper low over the Desert Southwest and how
quickly it can progress eastward, as it will give everything
downstream a push to the east in the process. Of course, it bears
watching the close proximity to Hurricane Humberto and what
potential interactions may unfold on that front.
Eastward scenario and impacts:
A eastward scenario would certainly be welcome, yielding lesser
overall impacts across central NC. The storm would still induce
increased moisture transport into the area. That, combined with
strong upper level divergence and the presence of a stalled surface
boundary near the coast, would likely yield rain across the area
Monday into Tuesday and it appears the first part of the week will
be wet even in this situation. Much of the area is within a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall per WPC for this very reason. Rainfall
amounts will be hard to pin down exactly but totals from Monday into
Tuesday could range from 2 to 4 inches across the area.
Westward scenario and impacts:
A westward scenario would take the aforementioned rainfall farther
into NC, while adding in the threat of tornadoes and increased winds
with the storm itself. Impacts would be notably worse in this
scenario. Again, there is a slight tendency in the ensembles to shy
away from this scenario with this morning`s runs but it still
warrants watching.
Forecast from Wednesday onward:
Still looks like a signal in the ensembles for cool/dry high
pressure over eastern Canada to build down across the East Coast.
Cooler/drier weather would be favored in this situation, especially
if the eastern T.D. track verifies. If the westward track comes to
pass, the remnant upper low could keep conditions unsettled through
late week until westerly flow aloft gives the low a nudge offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...
IFR to LIFR conditions, along with periods of showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms will dominate across NE NC through the
afternoon into the evening. Elsewhere, MVFR to VFR conditions will
continue with scattered showers. Redevelopment of IFR to LIFR
conditions is expected tonight between 06z and 09z, continuing
through 15z-18z Sunday.
Looking beyond 18z Sun, Scattered showers are possible Sunday
afternoon, mainly in the SE (FAY). Otherwise generally VFR
conditions are expected late Sunday into Sunday evening.
Thereafter, central NC terminal conditions will greatly depend on
the development and/or path of Tropical Cyclone Nine, as it is
expected to drift toward the Southeast US coast early next week.
Uncertainty is high, though, so aviators are encourage to keep up
with the latest information and updates from the NHC this weekend
and into next week. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion