Mc Guire Air Force Base, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

126
FXUS61 KPHI 262004
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
404 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will settle south of the area, where it will remain
into the weekend and early next week. A few waves of low pressure
will move along it creating unsettled weather at times. Another
cold front will pass through the area mid-week, followed by
strong high pressure building southward in its wake.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tonight, weak high pressure continues across the area. Skies
will remain mostly clear overnight and winds will be light.
Patchy fog is expected in most rural areas with the humidity
levels still somewhat high. Overnight lows will drop into the
upper 50s to low 60s overnight. Winds will be light.
On Saturday, the weak area of high pressure will have moved
offshore while a weak low develops well to the southwest. An
onshore E/SE flow will develop across the area. Moisture will
increase over the area, so the sunshine for the morning will
fade behind increasing clouds for the afternoon. Models are
showing that rains may develop and move across Delmarva and
SEPA, south NJ during the afternoon. We`ll keep the chance pops
for those areas attm. Highs will be a bit above normal with most
areas reaching between 75-80 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak upper-trough will be centered over portions of the
Southeast Saturday, gradually cutting off with little movement
through Sunday night. This will lead to modestly enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft across the area throughout the period.
At the surface, a stationary front will remain draped across
portions of the Mid- Atlantic south of the forecast area.
This overall pattern will favor unsettled weather with waves of
showers anticipated from late Saturday through early Sunday.
Right now, it appears that the greatest chance for showers
across the entire area will be Saturday night, with PoPs at
least 30% across the entire area. Likely PoPs (60-80%) are
expected across portions of Delmarva and southern NJ. Modest
elevated instability could lead to an embedded storm or two, but
severe weather is not anticipated. Rainfall amounts do not look
particularly impressive at this time, with most locations
seeing 0.5" or less. However, some guidance suggests locally
heavier amounts near 1-2" could be possible, but this would be
quite localized if it materializes. Lingering showers are
possible into the day Sunday, especially near the coast. Sunday
night should be dry for most.
Lows Saturday night look to range from the upper 50s across the
higher elevations of eastern PA and far northern NJ to the low-
mid 60s elsewhere. Temperatures Sunday will depend on how many
showers linger, and to what extent cloud cover clears out. For
now, most coastal locations look to be in the mid 70s, but some
inland areas will be near 80 degrees if sufficient drying and
clearing occurs. Lows Sunday night across much of eastern PA and
northern NJ look to be in the mid-upper 50s, with low 60s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast remains highly uncertain, in large part
due to Hurricane Humberto and Invest 94L, which is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks generally
northwestward toward the Carolina coast. The exact evolution of
the upper air and surface pattern is also inherently uncertain,
but in general the cutoff low over the Southeast is expected to
remain in place through mid-week with weak flow across the
area. At the surface, a cold front with strong high pressure in
its wake will eventually shift southward into the region. The
extent of this high and the rate at which is shifts into the
area will be consequential in forecasting the evolution of the
tropical cyclones, and how close they may ultimately get to the
area.
For now, confidence has increased that this high will keep
direct impacts from the tropical systems to the south of the
area. However, it must be stressed that this is a complex
scenario with what is ultimately expected to be two tropical
cyclones in close proximity to each other, and their future
interactions with each other and the larger scale surface and
upper patterns remains uncertain. With all of this being said,
have 20-40% PoPs for showers Monday and Tuesday primarily south
of I-78. With high pressure eventually settling into the area,
Wednesday and Thursday appear more likely than not to be dry,
and do not have mentionable PoPs at this time. The pattern next
week could support multiple days of coastal flooding, high surf,
and beach erosion, however the uncertainty is too large to nail
down any specifics. Fortunately, we`ll be about exactly half way
between the New Moon and Full Moon, which could limit impacts of
coastal flooding due to lower astronomical tides.
Temperatures look to be seasonable Monday and Tuesday, with
below average temperatures arriving behind the cold front
Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
thru Sunset... VFR expected. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots then
decreasing and becoming variable by sunset. High confid.
Tonight... VFR then some lower conditions in fog (except PHL/PNE)
late. Light Northeast winds. High confid except in fog
timing/placement.
Saturday... VFR conditions after any early morning fog. Increasing
high clouds thru the day then some low clouds arriving (PHL) by 00Z.
Light East winds then Southeast around 10 knots for the afternoon.
Medium/high confid.
Outlook...
Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible in showers.
Sunday through Sunday night...Primarily VFR. Brief periods of
sub- VFR conditions are possible in lingering showers.
Monday through Tuesday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions cannot
be ruled out with rain showers possible at times.
Wednesday...No significant weather expected, though gusty
northeast winds are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
We`ll continue to not need any marine flags for tonight and Saturday
morning as fair weather continues across the waters. Weak high
pressure across the area will keep winds rather light and seas
mostly around 2 to 3 ft on the ocean and around a foot for Delaware
Bay.
Winds will increase from the East/Southeast Saturday afternoon with
speeds up to 10/12 knots.  A few showers may arrive across Delaware
Bay or the DE coastal waters by late afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Sunday...No marine headlines expected
with winds generally below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet. Showers
and a few thunderstorms likely Saturday night.
Monday through Wednesday...Marine headlines will likely be needed
as winds and seas both increase. For now, wave heights look to
be the primary concern, building to 7-12 feet by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Northeast winds could exceed 25 kt with gale force gusts possible
as well, particularly Tuesday through Wednesday. Showers possible.
Rip Currents...
For Saturday...Northeasterly wind 5-10 mph becoming easterly in
the afternoon. Breaking wave heights generally 1-2 feet. Swell
from offshore storms remains insignificant in height and period.
Given these factors, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.
For Sunday...Mainly northeasterly wind at 5-10 mph. Breaking
wave heights generally 1-2 feet. A southeasterly swell from
offshore storms starts to increase late in the afternoon.
Initially, our period is 6-8 seconds but does start to increase
later in the afternoon with the potential for a longer period
swell developing at a period of around 10 seconds. Given these
factors, have opted to maintain a LOW risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at all beaches at this time.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Cooper/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Cooper/Staarmann
AVIATION...Cooper/MJL/OHara
MARINE...Cooper/Guzzo/MJL/OHara

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion