Mc Intosh, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS62 KJAX 280633 CCA
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
232 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Tropical Storm Watches for the Adjacent Coastal Atlantic Waters
  of NE FL and SE GA.
- Tropical Depression Nine To Bring Dangerous Marine and Surf
  Conditions. Dangerous beach and boating conditions later today
  into next week. Tropical Storm Conditions Possible Coastal
  Waters Beginning Monday. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- High Rip Currents in effect today through mid week.
.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Patchy fog over the inland areas early this morning with a few
low clouds and temps were in the lower to mid 70s. A change in
pattern today with TD Nine to the southeast near the Bahamas and
high pressure ridging to the northwest. This is now setting up a
deeper northeast flow today compared to the deep southwest flow
of yesterday. Lingering isolated convection remains over the area
mainly across inland southeast GA that has dumped some 2-3 inches
rainfall amounts, possibly higher as of 145 am but should dissipate
in the next hour or so. This convection is right under the mid
level trough. The trough is expected to lift out and push northwest
as the broad circulation of Nine has an influence on the pattern.
A sfc trough oriented north to south near the coast will act as
forcing for some showers and potential t-storms as moisture
increases from the prevailing northeast flow north of TD Nine.
Scattered convection is mainly anticipated for the eastern zones
today with isolated activity well inland. Max temps will be
similar to yesterday in the mid to upper 80s. Breezy northeast
flow will begin today, lower wind speeds inland with skies mainly
partly cloudy.
Tonight, moisture will continue to increase as the deeper moist
flow begins and should see at least scattered showers and a few
storms to continue overnight for the coastal areas and more
isolated further inland. This activity may bring heavy downpours to
the coast. Breezy at the coast overnight at up to 10-20 mph, but
more stable inland at 5-10 mph. Winds and additional clouds will
help keep min temps in the lower 70s for most areas, with the coast
temps leveling off in the mid 70s late in the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Monday & Monday Night: With the expected north/northwest movement
trending slower than previous forecasts, this time frame will
therefore become the one with the most expected impacts to occur
with Tropical Depression Nine (TD9), especially for the coasts and
area waters. Sustained winds and gusts are likely to reach their
peak levels Monday and Monday Night, with this period expected to
be the closest point of approach of TD9. With both a shift in the
expected track towards the southeast as well as a quicker turn
towards the northeast/east expected, this also drops potential
slightly for sustained winds of tropical storm force for the
coastline, and possibly even the nearshore waters. Still expecting
a close enough pass for at least gusts of tropical storm force
across most if not all of area waters, with occasional gusts at
the coast and towards about the I-95 corridor. Tropical Storm
Watches remain in effect for all waters at this time as potential
still exists for sustained tropical storm force winds, though any
watches/warnings the closer to the coast you go are slowly looking
less likely at this time barring any unexpected significant
changes to the track/strength of TD9. Other coastal/beach hazards
are expected to peak during the Monday/Monday Night time frame as
well, including high risk for life-threatening rip currents, surf
approaching & reaching High Surf Advisory, and the potential for
minor coastal flooding in the 1-2ft range above MHHW. Being on the
western side of the system is expected to limit expected rainfall
at this time, especially inland. However, current thinking is a
close enough pass for continuous showers with occasional thunder
near the coast and a few outer bands penetrating inland at times,
with some localized flooding certainly possible, specifically
inside the I-95 corridor. In addition to heavy rainfall with any
showers/t`storms, some locally higher gusts to tropical storm
force would occur in these bands, even away from the coast.
Fortunately at this time, tornado threat is expected to be low.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Guidance is in fairly good agreement
that regardless of exactly how far northward or westward the
system tracks with respect to the coast, the expected cyclone will
start to pull away to the northeast Tuesday and Tuesday Night as
ridging over the northeastern US makes a push southward. Though
TD9 will be moving away from the coast, the reinforced ridge will
persist breezy conditions mainly from the north to northwest &
also continue most or all marine and coastal hazards along with
it. Some showers and occasional thunderstorms will remain
possible, especially near the coast, though the north to northwest
flow will continue to advect slightly drier air as PWATs drop to
around or just below 1.5 inches over the interior, which will
likely drop off chances rather quickly the further inland you go
on Tuesday. The extent of the drier air advection and therefore
chances or rain further inland Tuesday and into Tuesday Night will
also depend on how close to the coast the system tracks, how
strong the cyclone is, and how quickly it pulls away.
With all the above being said, some uncertainty still remains with
respect to the exact track of the system. Though trends have been
generally further south and east of our region, these situations
can change rather quickly. Please continue to monitor forecasts at
both weather.gov/jax and hurricanes.gov.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
TD 9, likely Tropical Storm or Hurricane Imelda, will be off the
SE US coast on Wednesday and is forecast to shift eastward
further into the Atlantic as high pressure and drier air build
down the eastern US coast. There is still some uncertainty with
the system`s track with the GFS having it quickly move eastward
into the Atlantic and the ECMWF lingering the system off the
Carolinas coast through the end of the week. Regardless, drier air
and increasing subsidence on the left side of the system will
likely suppress rain chances on Wednesday. Developing ENE flow
will gradually increase moisture back to the area with isolated to
scattered showers and storms for the end of the week. Best
chances for rain will be along the coast. Despite the departure of
TD 9, there will likely still be lingering coastal and marine
impacts locally. Persistent ENE winds will make it hard for seas
to subside, with additional long-period swells traveling toward
the coast from Major Hurricane Humberto through next week.
Temperatures will be slightly below seasonable for mid-late week
and gradually increase to seasonable for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Vsby restrictions expected at VQQ and some MVFR and potential IFR
or lower cigs and vsby anticipated to affect GNV and possibly JAX
with mostly VFR for SGJ and SSI. Cig and vsby from the early morning
cooling should lift by mid to late morning. The flow will shift
to more northeasterly Today and bring in some Atlantic moisture so
scattered cumulus are likely and there is possibility of MVFR
cigs and VCSH or even a VCTS. Confidence is low on introducing an
TEMPO groups at this time. Bouts of MVFR cigs will be possible
later tonight, mainly coastal TAFs. Light and variable wind
through 13z, will then become northeasterly 7-10 kt inland and up
to about 10-15 kt coastal TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Tropical Depression Nine, located south of the central Bahamas
tonight, is forecast to become a tropical storm by early Sunday
and a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. The system is forecast
to pass east of area waters Monday and then move northeast late
Tuesday through Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect
over the area waters for this system. Strong northeast winds and
very rough seas are still expected in the Wednesday to Thursday
time frame.
Interests should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center.
Rip currents: Increasing onshore flow and building surf will lead
to higher rip current risk today and so hoisted a high rip
current risk which will be continuing into next week as surf
continues to build. There is a good chance of high surf for area
beaches sometime on Monday which will likely continue into at
least mid week. Surf builds up to the 7-10 ft range and could be
higher in some spots. Peak wave heights generally occur in the
Monday night through Tuesday evening time frame.
&&
.HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Mostly a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the coastal areas
through Tuesday. Highest rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are
possible for the coast with locally higher of about 4 inches.
Coastal flooding potential: Coastal water levels will be rising
Monday through Wednesday. PETSS mean water level guidance
generically shows only minor tidal flooding concerns while
localized spots could see slightly higher potential. Current
forecasts show up to about 2 ft MHHW at the coast and 1-2 ft MHHW
for the St Johns River Basin and Intracoastal Waterway.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  69  83  68 /  10  20  50  20
SSI  84  73  81  71 /  40  60  80  50
JAX  87  72  84  71 /  40  50  80  40
SGJ  86  73  83  72 /  60  60  80  60
GNV  90  70  87  70 /  30  20  40  10
OCF  89  72  86  72 /  40  20  40  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion