Mechanicsville, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

575
FXUS61 KAKQ 281743
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
143 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier day is expected as the slow moving cold front
finally pushes offshore this afternoon. Tropical Depression
Nine is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks north off
the Southeast coast through Tuesday. While the center of the low
is not expected to be near the local area, rain from the system
is expected to overspread the local area Monday into Tuesday.
However, uncertainity remains high regarding rainfall totals
given uncertainties regarding the exact track of the system.
High pressure builds in by late week with cooler and drier
weather likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue this afternoon.
- A few light showers are possible across NE NC this afternoon
  and S VA/NE NC late tonight.
Latest surface analysis depicted surface high pressure centered
across the Ohio Valley and Midwest with a stationary coastal
front located offshore. Aloft, a shortwave trough remains across
the Southeast, allowing for moisture advection from the tropics
northward into the Mid Atlantic. As such, partly cloudy skies
continue this afternoon across the NW half of the FA (due to CU)
with mostly cloudy skies across the SE half of the area. Temps
as of 120 PM ranged from the low-upper 70s with afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 70s (locally near 80F) expected. Cannot rule
out an isolated shower or two across NE NC this afternoon, but
radar trends have not been promising given the coastal front now
located offshore.
A brief break in the cloud cover is possible this evening across
northern portions of the FA which may allow for some patchy fog
to develop. However, confidence is low. Otherwise, cloud cover
increases from south to north overnight as moisture continues to
advect into the region aloft. Overnight lows in the lower 60s NW
to upper 60s SE are expected. Additionally, a few light showers
are possible across south central VA and NE NC late tonight into
early Mon morning with very little QPF expected. However, a
bit of dry air in the mid levels may keep moisture from
reaching the ground until Mon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Chances of rain will increase Monday through Tuesday as outer rain
bands from TD-9 (expected to become  Hurricane Imelda) overspread
the region.
- Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday along the coast.
By Monday the upper low will have weakened substantially. At the
surface the stalled frontal passage will be will continue to linger
off the SE coast. Further south two tropical systems will continue
to nudge north but remain out of our area. TD- 9 is still progged to
become Hurricane Imelda by late Monday off the Florida coast. Across
our are there could be some showers associated with this tropical
system and could bring some locally heavy rain fall at times . Pops
in the afternoon increase to 25 to 40% along and N of I-64 and 40 to
60% south. The chances for heavier rain fall is expected to be
across the far southern portion of the area. Overall around .25"
is expected across the south with these rain band with some possible
higher amounts nearing .5". WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for
the south for locally  heavy flooding. Highs for Monday will be in
the middle lower to middle 70s. By Tuesday, TD-9 is expected to
stall further south off the coast of SC/GA/FL before eventually
turning out to sea. Across our area high pressure will be building in
out of the north assisting in keeping the chances of rain further
across the south. Additional rain amounts across the south will be
between .25" and .5" in the early morning hours of Tuesday. Then by
Tuesday afternoon and early evening rain chances start to lower as
TD-9 moves out to sea. WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for the
south for locally  heavy flooding. In addition to the rain chances
Tuesday, breezy wind conditions are expected along the coast with
wind gusts between 25 to 35mph. Highs for Tuesday will be in the low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Drier and cooler weather is expected by the end of the week.
-Breezy NE winds will continue with gusts nearing 40mph by
Wednesday.
Cooler and drier air will advect into the area by the middle to late
next week and a strong high pressure moves over New England and the
Mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient on Wednesday from the high
pressure to the north and the two tropical systems to the east and
south will be quite strong along the coast. This will allow for
breezy conditions lasting from Wednesday to Thursday. Wind gusts
along the coast will be 30 to 35mph with some isolated gusts upwards
of 40mph and 20 to 25 MPH inland. these conditions will be very
similar through Thursday. Then by Friday the pressure gradient will
weaken and the winds will decrease. Temperatures will overall be
pleasant through the middle and late week. Highs will be in the low
70s Wednesday and upper 60s Thursday and Friday. Lows temperatures
will plunge down into the middle to lower 50s Wednesday and upper
40s to low 50s Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Partly cloudy skies continue this afternoon across the NW half
of the FA (due to CU) with mostly cloudy skies across the SE
half of the area. As such, a mixture of MVFR and VFR CIGs
continues with CIGs gradually improving to VFR from north to
south through the afternoon. ECG may remain MVFR through this
evening, but otherwise, a period of VFR conditions is likely
this evening across the terminals before cloud cover (and MVFR
CIGs) increases from south to north late tonight into Mon
morning (generally after 7z Mon). ECG may briefly drop to IFR
CIGs between 9-14z Mon. Otherwise, a return to MVFR CIGs is
likely across all terminals except SBY by 12z Mon. Additionally,
will note that a brief break in the clouds this evening may
allow for patchy fog inland with IFR VIS fog possible at SBY
between 7-12z. However, confidence is only moderate in IFR VIS
at this time. Mostly cloudy skies are expected Mon across the
area with mainly VFR CIGs north and MVFR CIGs south. Scattered
light showers are possible across the area Mon with low QPF.
However, confidence was too low to reflect in the 18z tafs.
Otherwise, winds were NE 5-10 kt this afternoon. Winds diminish
to 

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion