Mechanicsvlle, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

965
FXUS61 KAKQ 301949
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
349 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast
coast this morning before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to
sea later today. Light rain well north of the system continues over
the local area today through Tuesday. High pressure builds in from
mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
- Light rain/drizzle in the far western portions of the area will
  dry out this afternoon.
- Breezy conditions expected today and tonight, especially along the
  coast where gusts of 25-35 mph are possible.
The expansive cloud shield of Hurricane Imelda remains over the area
as the storm moves further east off the SE US coast. Only isolated
areas of light rain/drizzle remain in the the far west and northwest
areas this afternoon. Rain chances dwindle for these areas this
afternoon as drier air filters in from high pressure to the north.
Drier air with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s will continue to
move south overnight. Until that drier air moves in, dewpoints are
in the lower to mid 60s. Temperatures at the time of writing are in
the lower to mid 70s, potentially warming up a few more degrees this
afternoon. Overnight, the temperatures will fall to the upper 50s in
the piedmont to the upper 60s in SE VA/NE NC. Overcast skies will
continue through the night. The gradient between the high pressure
to the north and TS Imelda will tighten throughout the day and N-NE
winds will increase through the evening and into tonight, with gusts
of 20-30 mph possible especially along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy conditions are expected to continue Wednesday, especially
  along the coast where gusts around 25 to 35 mph are possible.
As Hurricane Imelda continues to trek further offshore into the
Northern Atlantic on Wednesday, the expansive cloud shield will
decrease from northwest to southeast. Some scattered clouds are
still likely with the northeast flow along the coast, but should
clear out elsewhere by Wednesday evening. Winds will continue to be
breezy as high pressure filters southward towards the area,
tightening the pressure gradient between the high and Imelda. Wind
gusts of 15-20 mph are expected inland and gusts of 25-35 mph near
the coast. These breezy winds will peak in the afternoon and slowly
decline overnight. Temperatures Wednesday will be in the lower to
mid 70s with cooler lows in the mid 40s towards the piedmont and
upper 50s to the east. As the high pressure brings down a cooler
airmass from the north, temperatures will be cooler on Thursday in
around 70F for the high and mid 40s to upper 50s for the low.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Dry and fall-like conditions expected Friday with a warm up this
  weekend into early next week.
As high pressure remains dominate over the area with a cooler
airmass, Friday`s temperatures will be cool with highs in the lower
70s. The cooler airmass will loose its hold on the area as an
amplified mid-upper level ridge gradually slides over the East
Coast. This will allow temperatures to warm back up to the upper 70s
and near 80F this weekend into early next week. Overnight lows will
slowly increase to be more mild in the mid 50s to lower 60s by
Sunday night. Although the air mass will become modified, dry
conditions are anticipated as the high pressure`s reign will be
quite strong.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals for the 18z/30 TAF period.
Overcast skies of cirrus clouds from Hurricane Imelda are over the
area today and overnight, beginning to clear from west to east
tomorrow afternoon. Cloud decks will likely lower some Wednesday
afternoon as Imelda drifts further offshore, but no restrictions are
expected at this time. NNE winds continue to increase this afternoon
at 10-15 kt inland and 15-20 kt near the coast. Gusts up to 30 kt
are possible, primarily this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.
Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated Wednesday evening
through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs are in effect through late this evening for all marine zones.
- Deteriorating boating conditions and increasing NE winds are expected,
  with the strongest winds expected late tonight through
  Wednesday, primarily due to a strong pressure gradient N of
  the region as Tropical Cyclones Humberto and Imelda move well
  offshore. Gale Warnings have been issued for the ocean, mouth
  of Chesapeake Bay, and the Currituck Sound.
- Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane   Center
  regarding the progress of Humberto and Imelda.
Afternoon sfc analysis and satellite imagery show tropical cyclone
Imelda traveling east off the coast of FL, Humberto well off the
coast of the Carolinas. Strong high pressure out of Canada is
building south into the Mid Atlantic. The pressure gradient between
all of these features has allowed for elevated winds over the local
marine area today. Latest obs indicate NE winds of 15 to 20kt with
gusts to 25kt. Buoys show seas of 7 to 9ft, waves of 2 to 3ft. Small
Craft Advisories are currently in effect for all marine zones.
NE winds will continue to increase into tomorrow. CAA from the cool
high pressure building in with aid the already tight pressure
gradient in accelerating winds. Expecting winds to peak Wed morning
with ~30kt over coastal waters, mouth of the bay, and Currituck
Sound (gusts to 40kt) and 20 to 25kt (gusts around 30kt) in the bay
and rivers. Gale Warnings go into effect for the Coastal Waters,
mouth of the bay, and Currituck Sound late tonight. Seas will
continue to build to 10-12ft through mid day tomorrow. Waves will be
5-6ft in the lower bay, 2-4ft elsewhere. Winds will steadily
diminish starting tomorrow evening as the tropical systems weaken
and move further from the coast and high pressure slides south. By
Thursday morning, winds will still be elevated, but down to 15-25kt.
Seas will be slow to fall given the onshore winds and will only be
down to 8-10ft by Thursday evening. Winds will be a bit faster to
diminish Thursday night into Friday as that high really settles in.
Still out of the NE Friday, but down to 10-15kt. Winds will be light
through the weekend, but the remaining swell combined with
continuing onshore flow will likely mean SCAs for seas 5ft+ through
Saturday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...
Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected
through tonight/early Wed. After that, expect anomalies to steadily
increase by ~1.5 ft with tide cycles on Wednesday morning into Wed
night, highest across the lower Bay due to the combination of strong
NE winds and wave action/increasing seas (due to both wind waves and
swell).
The latest ETSS continues to show a high likelihood of at least
minor coastal flooding Wed/Thu for most of our tidal sites, with the
highest water levels occurring during the Wed aftn/evening high tide
cycle in the middle/lower bay and ocean (with higher levels in the
upper bay on Thu). Note that the highest anomalies are expected to
be in the lower bay/tidal James. Not much change in the tide
forecast from this morning`s forecast package. The latest forecast
has most sites cresting well into minor flood thresholds, with
Jamestown/Smithfield, Lynnhaven, and Jamestown having the best
chance to exceed moderate thresholds by a tenth or two with the high
tide cycle Wednesday aftn/evening. Opted not to issue a Coastal
Flood Watch with this package given low confidence in doing more
than barely touching Moderate at just a few sites. Did go ahead and
issue Coastal Flood Advisories for minor flooding, though, for areas
south of Windmill Point (including the tidal James and York rivers)
since the peak high tide is in a little over 24 hours now. Another
couple of cycles of mainly minor flooding is then expected across
most areas late Wed night/early Thu and again on Thursday afternoon.
Bishop`s Head may approach moderate coastal flood threshold on Thu,
as winds diminish and water potentially gets stuck in the Ches
Bay.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     VAZ078-084>086-100-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     VAZ082-083-089-090-518-520.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     VAZ093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ633-634.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ633-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion