Meeks, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

602
FXUS64 KFWD 231906
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move into North Texas later today with
  increasing storm chances through tonight across much of the
  region. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds and
  hail.
- There is a 20% chance of isolated rainfall totals near 4-5" in
  parts of East Texas through tomorrow afternoon. Heavy rainfall
  may cause flash flooding.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/
A period of unsettled weather will begin late this afternoon and
continue through tomorrow as a strong upper level trough moves
through the southern Plains. At the surface, recent analysis show
a low pressure system over central OK with the associated cold
front extending towards the southwest (just outside of our CWA,
near Wichita Falls). This front will continue its slowly
progression east/southeast this afternoon and evening with
showers and storms developing near and along the front mainly
west of I-35/35W and north of I-20. Not much has changed in terms
of the potential for severe weather late afternoon through the
evening hours. We`re still thinking areas generally along and
north of I-20, especially along the Red River and northeast TX.
Scattered large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards.
There`s still a low tornado threat across our northeast counties
near the Red River through this evening, however the best low-
level wind field is expected to remain north of our area in NE OK
and NW AR where the Enhanced Risk of severe storms is located.
As the upper level trough progresses eastward overnight into
Wednesday morning, we will see the coverage of showers and storms
increase across the region. The combination of large scale
ascent, high PWs, sufficient mixed-layer CAPE, and the alignment
of the 25-30 kt WSW low-level flow will continue to fuel showers
and storms to develop along and behind the front. While the severe
risk will decrease overnight, the threat for locally heavy rain
and flooding may increase especially for areas east of I-35 as the
front pushes south and additional rain develops. Several of the
CAMs show the potential for very isolated rainfall totals of 5"+
in the next 24-36 hrs. At this time the chances are around 20-25%
mainly across our far eastern counties. Make sure to have multiple
ways to receive warnings and don`t drive through flooded roads.
Most of the activity will shift to Central Texas in the afternoon
and south of our area into the evening hours. A few strong to
marginally severe storms are possible with a hail and
gusty/damaging wind threat in addition to locally heavy rainfall.
Low rain chances will continue Wednesday night, but most of the
activity will be out of our area. The combination of rain, clouds,
and northerly winds will keep the daytime highs on Wednesday in
the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Early Next Week/
The rest of the week remains fairly quiet and pleasant with
daytime highs staying in the 80s through Friday and no rain
expected. A slow warm up is forecast over the weekend, but
temperatures will likely stay in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
in the far western zones. We will remain sandwiched between the
upper low that will move toward the eastern US and another
digging trough to our west. Overall, subsidence will prevail over
our region with plenty of sunshine and no rain chances through
early next week.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Concerns...Thunderstorms this evening and tonight along and
behind FROPA. Low potential for storms Wednesday morning.
No aviation impacts through late this afternoon. A cold front is
still expected to approach D10 this evening with showers and
thunderstorms developing near and along the boundary. Latest
guidance show the best timing for storms to impact any of the DFW
Metroplex airports will be between 03-06Z tonight. The main
hazards with any storms will be lightning and gusty/erratic
winds. The highest risk for severe weather remains north of the
sites, but we can`t rule out a strong to marginally severe storm
with hail and damaging winds. FROPA will occur around midnight
with northerly wind and occasional showers through the morning
hours. Another round of isolated storms are possible from 11Z
through 15Z Wednesday but most of the activity will remain as
rain throughout the day. Periods of MVFR ceilings may also
accompany the rain through the morning hours. For Waco, the front
is forecast to arrive early Wednesday morning but the best
potential for storms will be during the late morning and the
afternoon hours.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested late afternoon through tonight
mainly for areas north of I-20. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  71  82  65  83 /   5  80  60   5   0
Waco                96  74  82  65  83 /   5  50  70  20   5
Paris               93  70  80  62  80 /  10  80  50   5   5
Denton              95  68  82  61  83 /  20  80  50   5   0
McKinney            94  70  81  62  82 /   5  80  60   5   0
Dallas              97  72  83  66  83 /   5  80  70   5   0
Terrell             93  71  81  63  82 /   5  80  70  10   0
Corsicana           95  74  84  66  84 /   5  60  80  10   5
Temple              96  74  84  65  85 /   5  30  70  30   5
Mineral Wells       98  69  84  61  84 /  20  80  60   5   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion