Mershon, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

425
FXUS62 KJAX 271744
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
144 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorm Coverage Today. Main Storm Hazards: Gusty Winds & Brief Flooding Rainfall
- Tropical Storm Watches Posted for the Adjacent Coastal Atlantic
- Waters of NE FL and SE GA. Winds Gusts of 45 knots possible for the offshore waters, gusts 35 to 40 knots for
- Tropical Development Near the Bahamas Expected this Weekend. Dangerous beach and boating conditions late Sunday into next week. Tropical Storm Conditions Possible Coastal Waters Beginning Monday. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cold front will move southeast across the area through Tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through
Tonight. A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Lows Tonight will trend near to a little above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A stalled front over the area on Sunday will keep precipitation
chances mainly along the eastern portions towards the coasts of
NE FL and SE GA as drier air filters in behind the front. Along
the local waters, winds will begin to increase from Sunday
afternoon through Monday as Tropical Depression 9 (TD 9) continues
its northward trek from the Bahamas, running parallel to the FL
peninsula. Isolated to Scattered chances of showers with isolated
chances of storms for locations east of US-301 on Sunday as the
frontal boundary remains stalled over the area. Isolated chances
remain for showers and storms to the west of US-301. Otherwise,
temperature highs on Sunday will be in the 80s area wide, with
warmer temperatures across inland locations behind the frontal
boundary. Overnight lows for on Sunday in the upper 60s over the
Suwannee Valley Region of NE FL and SE GA, while the lower 70s for
the rest of NE FL and coastal locations.
Monday, winds will continue to strengthen over the local waters
as TD 9, likely Tropical Storm Imelda (TS Imelda) by this time,
continues its northward trek. At this time, we have issued a
Tropical Storm Watch only for the local waters beginning Monday
morning. The need for a Wind Advisory along the coast will be  As
stated in previous discussions, coastal and beach hazards are
expected to ramp up late Sunday Night and into Monday. High risk
for life- threatening rip currents, High surf likely with larger
waves further offshore, with the potential for coastal flooding
depending on the strength and duration of onshore winds. A few
outer bands showers may affect mainly coastal areas as TD 9/TS
Imelda treks northward, with heaviest rainfall if any Monday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Tuesday, NHC expects TD 9 to be Tropical Storms Imelda and be near
if not already at hurricane intensity as it approaches the east
coast of SE CONUS. Current guidance suggests the system to remain
over the waters and take a sharp turn to the east by Wednesday
morning. The track will continued to be refined over the next
couple of days. Otherwise, we currently expected scattered chances
of showers and storms through the upcoming week as the system
moves away from the area. By the later half of the upcoming week,
a ridge along the eastern seaboard will look to keep things breezy
along the local waters with a more northeasterly type of event
developing sometime during the back half of the upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Showers with a potential for embedded thunderstorms are expected
to impact the Jax metro and coastal terminals by around 19z-21z
then dispersing and moving offshore by about 04z-06z. Lower
ceilings and mist can build in for inland areas by around 06z-08z
and then dispersing with the sunrise. Winds will build in from
out of the northeast by about 14z-16z with sustained speeds rising
to about 10 knots for inland areas and 11 to 14 knots for sites
nearer to the coastline.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A cold front will pass southeast of the area through Tonight.
A tropical system, currently labeled tropical depression nine, is
expected to pass just east of area waters early next week. A
tropical storm watch has been posted over the area waters for this
system.
Interests should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center.
Rip currents: A low-end moderate risk today with surf up to 2-3 ft
in some spots and onshore flow. The risk will be elevated again
on Sunday, potentially become high in some areas, mainly in northeast
FL. Increasing northeast winds Monday through mid week returns a
high rip current risk to local beaches. There is a high chance of
rough, high surf Monday into Tuesday as the tropical system passes
east of the local waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  88  68  83 /  10  20  20  40
SSI  72  84  73  81 /  20  40  70  70
JAX  71  87  72  83 /  20  40  50  70
SGJ  73  86  73  83 /  30  60  70  70
GNV  70  90  71  87 /  20  30  20  40
OCF  71  89  72  86 /  10  40  20  30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion