Minchumina, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

458
FXAK69 PAFG 281000
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 AM AKDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level troughing pattern continues to persist across
Northern Alaska, with a ridge of high pressure building over the
West Coast and Western Interior. A low pressure system in the Gulf
of Alaska and another low in the Beaufort Sea will continue to
support rain and snow chances across the Central/Eastern Interior,
Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North Slope through today and Monday,
as much of the Western Interior and West Coast remain mostly dry
during this period. An arctic trough working between these two
systems will continue to funnel in a cooler airmass today and into
early next week. This will support increased chances for
accumulating snow through Monday, including the lower elevations.
The with highest chances for accumulating snowfall are expected
across the mid and high elevations. As we progress through early
next week, confidence continues to increase on a low pressure
system working east out of Siberia into Western Alaska by late
Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will support
widespread rain/snow chances and strong winds building into our
region, especially along the West Coast. The strength and track
of this low will ultimately determine the exact impacts, so stay
tuned as we will continue to track and evaluate this system over
the coming days.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers through Monday.
- High confidence in widespread light accumulating snowfall
  through Monday, with highest totals expected across mid and
  high elevations.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting
  widespread frost/freeze conditions, as we continue to wait for
  the record latest first freeze at Fairbanks International
  Airport.
- Highs in the low 30s to low 40s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Mostly sunny, quiet, and dry conditions continue through
  Monday, with isolated showers along the West Coast.
- Increasing confidence supports a low pressure system moving out
  of Siberia into Western Alaska late Monday into Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with widespread precipitation and gusty winds
  expected.
- Highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow chances through early week,
  primarily across the North Slope and Central/Eastern Brooks
  Range.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range. Overnight lows in the Brooks Range
  in the single digits and teens.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday.
A low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska and another low in
the Beaufort Sea will continue to support rain and snow chances
across the Central/Eastern Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and
North Slope into early this week, as much of the Western Interior
and West Coast remain mostly dry under the increasing influence
of high pressure building in out of the west. Temperatures near
or below freezing have overspread much of the Central/Eastern
Interior and surrounding mid to higher elevations. This has
supported a changeover from a rain/snow mix to mostly all snow,
including the lower elevations of Fairbanks. This is a result of
colder air being advected into the area with an Arctic trough
digging into central Alaska. Expectations are for this area of
light snow to continue through this morning, perhaps turning back
to a rain/snow mix in the lower elevations as temperatures warm
into the upper 30s across the Central/Eastern Interior this
afternoon. There may be a few brief pockets of moderate to
heavy snow, but most will be light in nature. Light snow
accumulations are likely in the mid to high elevations through
today and Monday, with less confidence in the lower elevations
including Fairbanks given the warmer ground and surface
temperatures. Meanwhile, we are still looking to reach freezing or
colder at Fairbanks International Airport. Today would tie the
all- time record latest ever freeze for Fairbanks since records
began in 1905. Confidence increases in temperatures at or below
freezing for Fairbanks as we progress through the next few nights.
As for snowfall amounts, confidence is highest to see
accumulations in the mid to high elevations. As for the lower
elevations, including Fairbanks, the warmer ground and surface
temperatures may limit accumulations to elevated and grassy
surfaces. QPF amounts are around around a 0.10 to 0.50 inch
through the remainder of today into Monday. Snowfall amounts are
expected to be around a T-1" in the Tanana River Valley and
Fairbanks Bowl, 1-3" across the Yukon Flats, and 3-6" across mid
and high elevations of the Alaska/Brooks Ranges and White
Mountains. A Special Weather Statements remains in effect for this
region to capture these snowfall amounts.
As we progress into Monday, precipitation chances will gradually
shift north and east of Interior, with lingering light snow
overspreading the Central/Eastern Brooks Range towards the Arctic
Coast. This is a result of a ridge of high pressure nudging
further east off of the West Coast. Elsehwere, generally drier
conditions prevail through Monday ahead of the next system taking
shape across Siberia and Bering Sea.
Ensemble guidance continues to highlight a low pressure system
building east out of Siberia into Western Alaska late Monday into
Tuesday, supporting widespread rain/snow chances and stronger
winds building into our region, especially along the West Coast.
The strength and track of this low will ultimately determine any
impacts, so stay tuned as we will continue to track and evaluate
this system over the coming days. Overall, following an extended
stretch of fairly quiet weather along the West Coast, higher
confidence supports the return of a more active weather as we
finish out the month of September and head into early October.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through Saturday.
The extended forecast period begins with a strong low in the
Northern Bering Sea providing ample moisture and a shot of warmer
temperatures to the West Coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some
low-end gale force winds are likely with this low, but there is
still uncertainty in the exact track of this storm. There are some
possible storm tracks that could enhance coastal concerns possible
calling for high surf in the Norton Sound, especially if the low
stalls in place. Higher water levels are expected, but confidence is
still low on whether or not water levels will rise high enough to
cause any notable erosion or other impacts.
Afterwards another, weaker, low moves east out of Siberia Thursday
following this first low with relatively mild weather expected. Late
Friday another low enters the Western Bering Sea. This low is
potentially more impactful than the first this week, but confidence
is very low in its track and strength. Models are inconsistent with
its details, not just with each other, but also between runs of the
same model. The more dangerous tracks could lead to minor coastal
flooding, with the less dangerous ones just bringing another round
of rain and snow to the West Coast and Western Interior. For now
confidence is too low to say anything definitive with this system at
the end of the week, but we will continue to monitor it for signs of
hazardous weather.
-Stokes
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&
$$
Perez

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion