Minerva, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

649
FXUS63 KFGF 141141
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 1 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms today across
  much of eastern North Dakota and parts of west central and
  northwest Minnesota. Additionally, there is a 2 of 5 risk for
  severe thunderstorms across central North Dakota into parts of
  the Devils Lake Basin. Hazards could include isolated
  tornadoes, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and wind gusts to 70
  mph.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Low clouds and patchy fog are being observed this morning across
parts of the area, with east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The forecast remains on
track this morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...Synopsis...
An upper low is moving slowly northward across the Central High
Plains and into the Northern Plains. To the east, H5 ridging
continues to move slowly to the east, allowing south to southwest
flow into the Northern Plains. This will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and overnight, with
isolated to scattered severe storms possible. This H5 low continues
northward into Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba on Monday, with
shortwaves propagating into eastern North Dakota during the
afternoon and evening hours. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is possible, with a mention of stronger storms being
supported. Heading into Tuesday, shortwave activity continues as the
overall H5 pattern begins to shift, bringing a slow moving, nearly
cut off, upper trough eastward into the Central and Northern Plains.
Much cooler, near seasonal, temperatures will follow.
...Severe Thunderstorms Chances This Afternoon and Evening...
H5 upper low moves northward into western Nebraska and South Dakota
this afternoon and evening, with leading instability and good low
level shear. SBCAPE, in the 2000 to 3000 J/Kg range, will combine
with 0-3Km shear upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Strong low level lapse
rates during the late afternoon and evening will support development
in an already favorable forcing environment. As such, there is
support for low top supercells capable of producing tornadoes, hail,
and damaging wind gusts. Hail is supported, albeit with about 1.0 to
1.25 inches being the upper limit, mainly due to an overall lack of
0-6Km shear, which is roughly 25-30 knots in most model soundings.
Best chances for supercells will be west of the Red River Valley
where storms form in closer proximity to the approaching upper low.
CAMs remain in somewhat good agreement that initiation is likely to
begin as early as 22Z in eastern North Dakota, with activity
persisting into the late evening or early overnight period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
IFR ceilings prevail at KBJI and KDVL this morning with VFR to
MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Look for low stratus to remain in the
area through around mid morning before ceilings improve heading
into the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase after around
20Z at KDVL and after 00Z at KGFK and KFAR. Scattered
thunderstorm coverage could intermittently impact flight
categories this afternoon and evening. A few severe
thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon through
late evening. Rain chances continue into the overnight period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion