Minneola, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS62 KMLB 191120
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all Atlantic beaches
  today. Always swim near a life guard!
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible each day
  through the forecast period.
- Temperatures remain near normal today and into next week, due to
  the onshore flow and cloud cover.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today-Tonight... The mid to upper level trough will push farther
east out across the Atlantic with another trough slowly drifting
eastward across northern portions of the central US, resulting in
quasi-zonal flow aloft across the Florida peninsula. At the surface,
a weak low pressure is forecast to form in the Atlantic, resulting
in a weak surface boundary forming across southern Florida.
Northeast winds of 10-15 mph will dominate today, becoming breezy at
times along the coast and towards portions of the interior (gusts 20-
25 mph possible), especially the greater Orlando area. Drier air
will filter across the northern portions of the CWA due to the
northeast flow, with forecast PW values around 1.2-1.3" across the
north, and 1.5-1.7" across the south.
Global models are coming into better agreement in regards to
moisture, with models showing drier air filtering across the north.
Due to this drier air, rain chances have come down from the previous
shifts, with 20-40 percent from around Titusville southward and
towards Okeechobee County, with 10 percent or less from around the
greater Orlando area to New Smyrna Beach north and west. Highest
rain chances will continue to be focused across the Treasure coast
and near Lake Okeechobee. Overall lightning storm activity will be
limited today, due to the instability being minimal. However
isolated lightning storms will remain possible this afternoon. If
any storms are able to form, they will be capable of producing
occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and locally
heavy rainfall. Any lingering activity will diminish in the late
evening, with isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic
through the overnight, some of these showers may brush the coast.
Temperatures will continue to be near normal for this time of year,
with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and
upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in
the low to mid 70s.
Saturday-Sunday... An upper level troughs will continue to push
eastward across the northern portions of central US towards the
Great Lakes, resulting in continued quasi-zonal flow aloft across
the Florida peninsula. At the surface, a weak low pressure in the
Atlantic will result in a weak surface boundary remaining across
southern Florida through the weekend. Locally, northeast winds of 10-
15 mph will continue to dominate through the weekend, with breezy
conditions (gusts around 20 mph) at times along the coast and
towards portions of the interior, especially the greater Orlando
area. Drier air will continue to filter across the northern portions
of the CWA (PW values around 1.3-1.6"), which has resulted in
rain chances decreasing across the area through the time period.
Global guidance continues to come into better agreement about
moisture, with models showing drier air filtering over east central
Florida. As a result, rain chances have decreased from previous
forecast packages, with 20-40 percent east of southern Lake
including up to Leesburg (10 percent or less in this area), and
areawide on Sunday. Instability remains minimal through the weekend,
resulting in overall lightning storm activity continuing to be
limited.  However isolated lightning storms will remain possible
each afternoon. If any storms are able to form, they will be capable
of producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph,
and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering activity will diminish in
the late evening each day, with isolated to scattered showers over
the Atlantic through the overnight hours, some of these showers may
brush the coast.
Temperatures will continue to be near normal for this time of year
through the weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Monday-Friday... The aforementioned mid-upper level trough near the
Great Lakes will slowly shift eastward as a mid to upper level
cutoff low develops across the Central US into mid week. This cutoff
low will slowly drift eastward towards the Great Lakes into mid to
late week. This will result in mid level ridging developing over the
Florida peninsula mid week. At the surface, a boundary will
reestablish across South Florida and will shift northward to near to
just south of the local area by early week and will remain through
mid to late week while slowly drifting eastward and diminishing.
Locally, northeast to east winds at 10-15 mph will persist through
the period. Global models are in slightly better agreement, so have
decided to continue to go with NBM for rain chances (30-60 percent).
Isolated to scattered daily storms are also forecast, with with
lightning strikes and gusty winds the main concerns aside from heavy
rainfall and flooding. Any lingering activity is forecast to
diminish late each evening across the peninsula, with scattered
showers and storms remaining possible across the Atlantic waters
overnight.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year as onshore
flow persist. Afternoon highs will be in the  upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows wil continue to be low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions forecast into the next
week. Northeast winds will prevail through the weekend before
becoming more easterly into early next week. Winds will increase
around 15 KT today, with speeds generally 10-15 KT through the
weekend. Winds will diminish slightly to around 10 KT early next
week, as a surface boundary reestablishes itself near to just south
of the local waters. Seas 3-5 ft prevailing through the time period.
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms are forecast over
the Atlantic waters each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR to continue. Brief MVFR conds are possible where SHRA and
associated BKN CIGs push onshore, mainly TIX/MLB southward today.
TSRA cannot be ruled out, mainly MLB/VRB southward after 18z.
Otherwise, ENE winds 10-15kt gust 20-25kt this afternoon, then
decrease in speed after 00z. Breezy conds return Sat. after 15z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  74  86  74 /  10  10  20  10
MCO  89  73  90  74 /  10   0  20  10
MLB  86  76  87  76 /  20  10  30  20
VRB  87  75  88  75 /  30  20  30  20
LEE  90  72  90  72 /  10   0  10   0
SFB  88  73  89  73 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  87  74  88  74 /  40  20  30  20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion