Minnesota Lake, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

310
FXUS63 KMPX 220754
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing showers and storms exit to the east this morning. Another
round of showers and storms is expected along I-90 this afternoon
through early Tuesday.
- Quiet weather for the rest of the week with temperatures in
  the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Showers and storms continue primarily in eastern MN and western WI
this morning with storm strength having decreased from yesterday
evening where we saw some reports of hail up to around 2 inches in
diameter in a few locations. The main risk has transitioned to
localized flooding tonight as multiple rounds of showers have moved
through a few areas, with the highest amount of 3-4 inches over the
last 12 hours being observed in portions of northern Dakota and
Pierce counties. The upper level low which has been the primary
driver behind the last few days of weather is parked over Lake
Superior and will weaken further throughout the day today as flow
aloft becomes westerly by early Tuesday morning before shifting
northerly for the rest of the week. A pseudo stationary boundary and
increase low level jet later this evening will set the stage for one
final round of showers and storms favoring southern Minnesota along
I-90 as the boundary slides southwards into early tomorrow morning,
with a few stronger storms possible as SPC has introduced a SWODY1
marginal including 5% hail/wind risks. Storms are expected to be
isolated in coverage but keep refiring over the same locations such
that localized flooding could also be a concern, however PWATs are
somewhat limited around 1.25`` so multiple rounds of training storms
will be required to see impacts. As the boundary slides southwards
into Iowa overnight, active weather will cease within the bounds of
the MPX CWA and will begin a period of quiet weather.
Flow aloft will favor northerly with some wobbles to
northwest/northeast over the rest of the week, alongside weak
surface high pressure bringing general subsidence across the region.
Fair weather cloud cover is still expected as dew points remain in
the 50s and we should mix fairly well, which will also mean chances
for overnight fog become possible as temperatures fall to dew points
with efficient radiation cooling and weak surface winds underneath
high pressure. The fog will be the most dense earlier in the week
behind the showers, with gradually drying conditions as we head
towards next weekend resulting in fog that is overall patchier and
less of an issue. Other than the fog chance, there is little in the
way of sensible weather expected with a lack of synoptic or
mesoscale lifting mechanisms as well as moisture. It looks to be a
fairly warm but overall quiet end to September, with predictability
lower as we head into October due to a lack of longer scale
indicators. For now, enjoy the warm weather while it lasts as
October also brings the autumnal equinox, marking the trend of
rapidly losing daylight as we slide closer to the winter months.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Precipitation shield has by-and-large shifted into far eastern
MN and western WI, though a few very sparse returns are still
showing up on KMPX radar in central MN. Overall, the
precipitation will continue to shift east and diminish, leaving
making low stratus/fog in its wake for southern-eastern MN and
western WI through sunrise. Meanwhile, western MN shows more
signs of clearing but this may lead to IFR-or-worse fog prior to
and through sunrise, especially if/when winds drop off.
Conditions will slowly move towards VFR on the MN side through
the day while degraded conditions will be prolonged on the WI
side. There is a small chance that convection re-develops in far
southern MN but all indications are at this point that
additional precip development will remain south of MKT so,
beyond the morning precip, no additional precipitation is
expected at any TAF site.
KMSP...Little to no additional precipitation is expected during
this TAF cycle, but did run with a VCSH mention owing to the
sparse returns west of MSP. Still expecting MVFR ceilings to
develop prior to sunrise, with good potential for IFR ceilings
during the morning push, followed by slow-but-steady improvement
as the day progresses.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion