Minot, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

119
FXUS61 KBOX 101708
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
108 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool weather prevails today, along with a few showers
near Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, as low pressure
passes offshore. Conditions improve by tonight. Dry weather
then prevails for the rest of the week and into much of the
weekend as high pressure remains over New England with
seasonable temperatures. There remains a good amount of
uncertainty as to the next chance of rain but some unsettled
weather is possible around Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* Rain showers possible Wednesday and Wednesday night; best chance
  over the south coast but may expand into northern CT/RI/eastern
  MA.
* Cooler, in the 60s.
Overnight a coastal low approaching from the south will bring a
plume of moisture over southern New England in the form of overcast
skies, light rain showers, and drizzle. As expected, satellite
imagery shows the band of clouds expanding northwest with clear
skies remaining over far northwest MA this morning; this is the
location with the highest likelihood of seeing sun breaks today and
the lowest likelihood of rain. Generally guidance has been consistent
in showing moisture overcoming the dry air to produce rain mainly
along the immediate south coast and coastal plain of MA. The 3k NAM
has been more bullish with amounts and coverage, but as of 06Z it
has not initialized well, showing showers over the islands which
haven`t materialized. For that reason, the forecast leans on the
global guidance and other hi-res models like the HRRR. Rainfall
amounts on the order of a tenth of an inch are most likely in the
coastal plain, while places like the Cape and Islands may see totals
closer to 0.25" or more. Temperatures will be quite cool owing to
the clouds and NE winds, topping out only in the 60s so it will be a
bit raw today with gusts of 20-25 mph possible, especially over the
Cape and Islands. Tonight the low moves off and drier air is pulled
in around an incoming high allowing for clearing skies overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry and sunny, the warmest day of the forecast.
Thursday the coastal low exits east leaving a much drier airmass in
its place as high pressure drops in from the Hudson Bay. Thus,
temperatures rise quickly making for the warmest day of the forecast
before a cooler airmass arrives, with highs back into the upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry to start then a chance for rain returns Sun or Mon.
* Temperatures just a bit cooler than average in the low to mid 70s.
Cooler temperatures arrive on Friday as a cooler low/mid level
airmass arrives on N/NE flow. This will continue the trend of normal
to slightly below normal temperatures each day through early next
week as highs remain in the low to mid 70s. Surface high pressure
builds overhead through the weekend but forecast confidence drops
after Saturday with some question as to how the mid level pattern
evolves. Guidance indicates the chance for a series of shortwaves
rounding the broader trough overhead which may bring scattered
showers as early as Sunday but possibly Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update: High confidence in trends.
Through tonight...
MVFR-IFR cigs over the Cape/Islands expected to back into SE MA
late afternoon and evening, but should remain VFR to the west.
BOS-PVD corridor will be on the edge of the lower cigs with
SCT-BKN025 at times this afternoon. Clearing trend tonight but
MVFR cigs likely persisting over Cape/Islands. NE wind gusts up
to 20 kt along the south coast and Cape/Islands into this
evening.
Thursday and Thursday night...
VFR. N wind 5-10 kt. Afternoon sea-breezes possible along
eastern MA coast.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. SCT to occasional BKN MVFR
cigs around 2500 ft this afternoon, but drying trend by late
afternoon. VFR with clearing tonight. Sea-breeze develops by 18z
Thu.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...
Friday through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
SCAs continue into this evening as seas slowly decrease. NE winds 10-
15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt through today, with seas around 4-6 ft.
Winds and seas then begin to slowly decrease into this evening.
Periods of rain showers into early tonight over the waters, but then
begins to taper off except over the eastern waters. High pressure
and dry, quiet weather returns Thursday.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...BW

NWS box Office Area Forecast Discussion