Moline, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

900
FXUS63 KICT 211720
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will impact much of the area this
  morning and may linger in parts of southeast Kansas. A few
  strong or marginally severe storms may be possible in
  southeast Kansas this afternoon.
- Another storms system will impact the area late Monday night
  into Tuesday and may bring a threat for some severe storms
  but confidence in the details remains low.
- Dry and mild weather returns late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The large-scale pattern features a mid/upper trough over the
Northern Plains with more subtle shortwave troughs rotating around
this mean trough. One shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the
Northern Rockies as we move through the day today. Ahead of this
feature, we see shower and thunderstorm activity developing within
an area of isentropic upglide that is progged to continue within a
moist pbl. PWATS are expected to remain in the 150-175 percent of
normal range for late Sep leading to efficient rainfall. We may see
some breaks in much of central Kansas as we move through the day but
shower and storm activity may linger in parts of south central and
especially southeast Kansas. Clouds and precipitation will keep
highs below climate normals with most areas topping out in the mid
and upper 70s. Some shower activity may linger into the overnight
hours in southeast Kansas but much of the area is expected to remain
dry.
Mon-Wed...Shortwave ridging is progged to overspread the area on
Monday while a vigorous mid/upper trough digs into the Rockies. Much
of the area is expected to remain capped to deep moist convection
during the day on Monday but as we move into Monday night/early
Tuesday morning, we see robust sfc cyclogenesis across the Southern
Plains as large-scale forcing for ascent develops downstream from
the approaching mid/upper trough. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates and
increasing deep layer shear could support some large hail as we move
into the predawn hours on Tuesday but confidence in the details
remains fairly low at this time. Some shower activity could linger
into Tuesday night and Wednesday depending on the exact track of the
mid/upper trough. With limited insolation and precipitation,
temperatures will remain below climate normals Tue-Wed with most
areas seeing highs in the low 70s.
Thu-Sat...The mid/upper trough is progged to translate eastward late
in the week with dry and mild conditions returning to the area.
Highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s as the low level
airmass begins to dry out.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Showers continue moving eastward through central and south central
KS early this afternoon. These should remain high-based and allow
for mostly VFR through the rest of the day, though some sites in
central KS could see MVFR ceilings on the trailing end of precip.
Short-term model probabilities indicate low stratus building in
later this evening from southeast KS into the rest of the
region. Confidence is high in MVFR ceilings and the potential
for patchy fog, with the potential for IFR ceilings heading into
mid-morning on Monday. Tried to time the mixing out of these
impacts, though later cycles will likely have a better handle on
when conditions will dissipate.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion