Monkton Ridge, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

846
FXUS61 KBTV 270924
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
524 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool start to the morning is expected today with temperatures
in the mid 40s to mid 50s and some patchy fog. A warm and dry
weekend is expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
with some more morning fog possible tomorrow. Much above normal
temperatures continue through early next week before cooler
weather arrives by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 521 AM EDT Saturday...Made a morning update to increase
cloud cover forecast this morning to better match what`s
occurring on satellite. A swath of moisture is continually
flowing into the forecast area via stationary front that has not
moved southward as expected thus far. This in turn, means
increasing forecast hourly temperatures and decreasing fog
extent from this morning`s weather forecast. Temps are
struggling to get below the upper 50s, even in the typical cold
spots, and fog has yet to develop outside of eastern and central
Vermont, and is not expected to develop unless we see dramatic
clearing before sunrise.
Previous discussion...A stalling frontal boundary lingering
showers across the forecast area will sink southward early this
morning, giving way to high pressure directly overhead by
sunrise as valley fog burns off. This high pressure will result
in light, terrain driven winds, mostly sunny skies, and dry
conditions throughout the day today with relative humidity
values around 40-70% by this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s
for most, about 3-6 degrees above seasonable averages for late
September here in northern New York and Vermont. Moisture aloft
and an upper level shortwave is expected to flow in from the
southwest, resulting in gradually increasing clouds in the
afternoon and evening today. However, we`re not anticipating any
precipitation to reach the forecast area this weekend.
Winds will increase slightly from the south and southwest tonight as
that wave passes overhead, and clouds are forecast to start clearing
out again ahead of sunrise tomorrow morning from west to east.
Valley fog is possible again tonight, especially more towards the
dawn hours tomorrow morning, but likely isolated to the Connecticut
River Valley and southern/central Adirondacks due to the elevated
surface winds. Lows will be on the milder side under increased cloud
cover and in southerly flow, only in the upper 40s to lower 60s,
about 10-15 degrees above normals.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure, building upper
ridge, and warm air advection in west/northwesterly flow will start
next week off warm and dry with 925mb model temperature projections
as high as 18-21C in the afternoons. Surface highs are likely to
reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s both tomorrow and Monday.
Tomorrow looks to be slightly breezy as a weak, dry frontal boundary
may pass through the forecast area turning winds from westerly to
northwesterly. Fog looks again possible Sunday night under clear
skies, temps falling into the 40s to lower 50s, and lighter winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 226 AM EDT Saturday...A highly amplified upper level
ridge over central North America will gradually shift eastward
through the week, steering a large area of high pressure
southeastward into the Northeastern US. The only potential
hazards would be related to frost/freeze on Thursday morning,
and possibly again Friday morning, as seasonably cool
conditions, clear skies, and light winds support frost in the
St. Lawrence Valley and much of Vermont where our Frost Freeze
Program`s growing season continues in early October.
Ensemble data shows anomalously high surface pressure is
favored to reach the area on Thursday when winds will be
lightest through the period. Tuesday and Wednesday look
moderately breezy (20 to 25 MPH gusts common), with deep mixing
during the daytime hours. North winds will persist in between
the building high and lower pressure to our south through this
period, then Thursday-Friday they will likely be light.
Temperatures will fall from above to below normal moving from
Tuesday into Wednesday. Following a chilly start to the day on
Thursday, temperatures are favored to moderate to near normal
on Friday (highs ranging through the mid and upper 60s in most
spots).
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...A weakening moisture boundary is moving
southward through central Vermont, with pockets of showers along
the leading edge recently exiting MPV and associated clouds
approaching RUT with diminishing chance for rain but with brief
VLIFR ceilings possible. Otherwise, with sharply drier air to
the north filtering southward, expect clouds will tend to
scatter out through the next few hours. As such, patchy dense
fog will develop and could affect SLK and EFK with lower chances
(too low to include in TAF) at PBG/MSS/BTV. Probabilities of
IFR conditions have increased at MPV with possibility of CIGS
under 1000 feet through the next several hours, but remain only
about 50%. Satellite imagery shows clouds are already eroding in
many areas, but lingering stratus makes it difficult to
determine fog formation onset/duration even in the very near
term. Between 12Z and 13Z expect any MVFR/IFR conditions will
improve with all VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.
Winds will remain light, mainly 5 knots or lower, with wind
direction trending southerly after 18Z.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion