Monte Vista, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS65 KPUB 142005
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
205 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of frost once again possible across parts of the San Luis
Valley.
- Warmer tomorrow; 7-9F warmer on the plains, 3 - 6F higher
  terrain.
- Another cool down and more chances for showers and
  thunderstorms arriving mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Generally partly cloudy skies were noted over the region early this
afternoon, with a bit more clouds over the greater Pikes Peak area.
Temps were in the mid 60s to mid 70s plains, with 40s through 60s
higher terrain.
Tonight and Tomorrow...
Quiet overall and quite nice. Temps will warm up tomorrow as
compared to today, with 80 to 88 plains and 60s and 70s mtns. Pops
are nil for the next 24 hours, however I cant rule out a stray
shower this afternoon (especially Pikes Peak region) and over the
higher terrain tomorrow.
Main issue will be the continued threat of frost over the San Luis
Valley later tonight and tomorrow morning. /Hodanish
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Monday Night Through Wednesday.
Near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, with lows dipping down into
the 30s over the San Luis Valley, and 50s over the plains. A messy-
troughs pattern is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough on Tuesday will mean
near normal temperatures and the return of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain.
Highs in the 80s are expected over the plains, with temperatures
climbing into the 70s for our mountain valleys. A cold front
looks to pass through sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning, with general troughiness and northwest flow aloft
remaining over the region throughout the day on Wednesday. This
will mean below normal highs for most of us, along with
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Onwards..
Forecast confidence is not high through this period, as we`ll be on
the eastern periphery of a ridge building over the western conus,
with a low diving south across the northern plains. Some model
solutions keep us more under the influence of the building ridge,
with near normal highs and mainly dry conditions for at least
Thursday and Friday. Others bring the low as far south and west as
the Colorado/Kansas Border by Friday, which would likely increase
precip chances and keep our temperatures cooler than normal. Most
solutions do eject the northern plains low out to our east by around
the Saturday timeframe, putting us under the influence of the ridge
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS, and KCOS. Winds will be quite light and
diurnally driven. The only concern I see is we may have some
ground fog around sunrise at KALS as radiational cooling will be
quite good late tonight/early tomorrow morning at KALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion