Montville, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS61 KBGM 061037
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through the area will bring chance for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms early this afternoon, especially
for the Poconos and Catskills. On the other side of this front,
today will be cool and showery, but no risk for severe
thunderstorms for most of Central NY and the Northern Tier of
Pennsylvania. A few lake effect rain showers will be possible
Sunday, but otherwise most of the upcoming week looks dry along
with slowly moderating temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
320 AM Update:
A surface cold front continues to push eastward through the area
early this morning, with it being located right around the I-88
corridor as of 3AM. Aside from a few isolated light rain
showers, this overnight frontal passage has been mainly rain-
free. However, most of the rain showers today are expected to be
in an anafrontal manner as additional moisture will be drawn in
ahead of the supporting trough. This will be further enhanced by
being in the right entrance region of the jet. Current
expectations are for showers to become more widespread from west
to east after 7AM or 8AM this morning, but with limited
instability behind the surface cold front, thunderstorms are
not expected for most of this morning.
This afternoon could get a bit more interesting with a narrow
ribbon of decent dynamics and instability lining up across the
southeastern portion of the area (especially across the
Poconos-Catskills). While the strongest shear will be located
well to the west, there will still be around 50kts of 0-6km bulk
shear for the above mentioned areas. There are significant
differences in instability within the model guidance with the
NAM indicating around 1500 J/kg of CAPE, while the GFS only has
a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Lapse rates will be highest east of
the area (more towards the lower-mid Hudson Valley), but there
still could be a narrow ribbon of 6 C/km lapse rates for Pike-
Sullivan counties. There also is some modeled 0-1km Helicity for
those same areas. All of this put together, there will be a
narrow, few hour-long window (mainly 12PM-3PM) to see a few
severe thunderstorms for the above mentioned areas with locally
damaging winds being the main threat. There is also a small
chance for an isolated tornado, especially for Pike-Sullivan
counties. That being said, the best chance for severe
thunderstorms will actually be east of those areas (more across
the Hudson Valley/closer to the coast).
Otherwise, temperatures will vary greatly from northwest to
southeast across our area today. Daytime highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s are expected for most of Central NY north of I-88
and into the Northern Tier of PA, but with mid 60s to upper 70s
for highs for the Wyoming Valley-Poconos-southern Catskills). In
fact, cannot rule out an 80 degree reading across the far
southeastern portion of the area (far southeastern Pike County,
PA). That would make a 20+ degree spread in high temperatures
from north to south.
While the bulk of the rain will have moved out of the entire
area by this evening, there still will be some isolated to
scattered light rain showers or drizzle around. Lows are
expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update:
Cool cyclonic flow will set up during this period, with drying
conditions occurring over Northeast PA and most of Central NY,
while flow off of Lake Ontario sets up a lake effect/lake
enhanced rain shower regime for Sunday/Sunday night. The bulk
of shower activity appears to mainly affect the Tug Hill due to
the projected wind flow...however straggling showers can`t be
ruled out from Auburn-Syracuse-Rome. Highs on Sunday are
expected to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure moves in on Monday, which will result in mostly
sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
With the high pressure system located over our region Monday
night, skies will be clear and winds will be light. This will
set the stage for radiational cooling conditions. Went a few
degrees below the NBM by blending in some of the NBM 10th
percentile low temperatures, which resulted in forecast lows in
the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost will be possible across
areas that get into the 30s, especially across northern Oneida
County and the usual colder spots of Central NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
320 AM Update:
The long term period looks very quiet as of now with high
pressure largely dominating our weather. A cold front may move
through during the mid-week timeframe, but this looks moisture-
starved at this time. Temperatures will get slightly warmer for
the middle of the week (highs in 70s), before cooler conditions
return by the end of the week (highs back in the mid 60s to near
70 degrees by Friday).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will move across the NY terminals this morning, to
KAVP in Northeast PA around midday-early afternoon. Showers
will develop and eventual ceiling restrictions to MVFR.
Confidence has increased that fuel alternate levels will be
achieved for at least KBGM-KITH-KRME especially within heavier
embedded showers, but there is uncertainty for whether KSYR-KELM
could briefly get there as well. Thunder chances are also quite
limited, though somewhat better chance for thunderstorm
development occurs right along the front around midday-early
afternoon KAVP and thus a TEMPO group is included, before that
shunts east leaving just a few more post-frontal showers. All
terminals should revert to VFR conditions later afternoon
through evening, however we will probably have some restrictions
develop as clouds begin to decrease late tonight allowing for
valley fog formation, especially KELM but possibly also KRME-
KITH. Surface moisture from rain today will help that occur.
Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though with clear sky
under high pressure much of the time, valley fog possible at
KELM daily from late night-early morning.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MDP

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion