Moran, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS63 KICT 232340
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of showers and occasional storms for late tonight
into Wednesday morning, flooding risk is low
- A long extended dry weather pattern is expected for the region
beginning Thursday and continuing through middle of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Current satellite water vapor imagery shows main upper level wave
over Colorado. This system will migrate slowly eastward across
Kansas for tonight into Wednesday, and bring another round of
precipitation to the region. Predominate precipitation will be wrap
around rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms late tonight.
The activity will linger over south central/southeast Kansas
through the morning hours on Wednesday then shift east into
Missouri.
Meanwhile a weather pattern change will be in store for the region
in the wake of this departing system for Thursday into next week.
Models and associated ensembles show upper level ridge amplifying
over the Rockies then shifting slowly eastward into the
northern/central plains. This will result in an extended dry
weather pattern with daytime highs remaining around normal for
Kansas. The better quality low level moisture will be shoved
well south and remain blocked from returning northward by
surface high pressure camping out from the Great Lakes back into
eastern Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
This evening, a mix of VFR to MVFR cigs are noted across much of
the area, and this is expected to persist over the next couple
of hours along with some isolated showers across portions of
central and south-central Kansas. After sunset, cigs are
expected to fall well into the MVFR range, and a few sites could
see IFR cigs for much of tonight and into Wednesday morning.
Additionally, an areas of showers, and perhaps a few embedded
storms, will gradually drift north-to-south across the area
early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon. The
main impacts from this activity will generally be a few
lightning strikes along with maybe some visibility reductions in
pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. Chances for showers and
storms will gradually decrease Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings
should also return to VFR by Wednesday afternoon area-wide.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion