Mormon Lake, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS65 KFGZ 050845
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
145 AM MST Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Early morning low temperatures today and Monday will
produce some freezing temperatures in the high country, check your
local forecast for details. Expect fair and gradually warmer
afternoons through mid week, then a chance for showers returns by
late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Low pressure that brought windy conditions the past
couple days has moved off into the northern plains this morning,
leaving behind a drier and cooler air mass. A period of pleasant
fall weather is in store for the next several days, as lighter
southwesterly flow develops between a ridge to our southeast and
troughing off the west coast. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
colder than average for early October, reaching near or just
below freezing for some of the higher elevations above 6500 feet
and even into the upper 30s for places like Winslow and St Johns.
Daytime highs will be just below average today but gradually warm
above average by mid week. Winds will be light through mid week,
mainly in the 5-15 mph range out of the southwest. By Wednesday,
the ridge is forecast to start shifting westward closer to our
area, allowing for a weak moisture return in far eastern Arizona
and a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms for the higher
elevations of Apache County.
Thursday into next weekend - forecast models are in decent
agreement in the overall weather pattern, the ridge shifting even
farther west and the trough remaining over the west coast. This
places Arizona in enhanced south-southwesterly flow and is
expected to pull moisture northward. Grand ensemble mean
precipitable water increases from 

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion