Muscatine, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

830
FXUS63 KDVN 252327
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
627 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...00z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another chance for fog expected toward Friday morning, some
  of which could become dense mainly in river valleys and low
  lying areas.
- Extended period of dry conditions and above normal
  temperatures expected today through early October, with
  comfortable humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Surface high pressure remains over the upper Great Lakes today,
while another high remains over western Kansas. To the north, a dry,
cloudless cold front is positioned from northwest Minnesota through
the Rapids City area of South Dakota. This front is not expected to
progress through the Midwest, but is expected to wash out as it
approaches Iowa tonight. For our area, as expected we are seeing
less diurnal cumulus today, as the moisture content through the
lowest 5KM of the atmosphere is lowering.  Temperatures are mild, in
the lower to upper 70s as of 1 PM. Dew Point values are in the lower
to mid 50s, and with dry/drying crops in the fields or harvested
fields, it appears that we will dealing with dew point values 60 or
less through the week ahead, since we`re lacking a moisture source
in this blocking pattern.
Tonight, a quiet, clear night is forecast, with lows dropping to the
lower 50s.  Like last night, a short period of shallow/dense fog is
possible, mainly in river valleys. This past morning, we saw most of
the fog along the Iowa/Cedar River valleys, and the northern
stretches of the Mississippi River (north of Sabula IL). This same
area seems to have potential tonight, and possibly in nights to come
as well. I`ve been rather specific in including Pot-Fog Grids only
in these valley locations between 3 AM and 8 AM. Otherwise, benign
night is confidently forecast.
The main area of surface high pressure influencing us Friday will be
south of Iowa, thus sunshine and light west  winds are forecast.
Some slight warming aloft will result in highs in the lower to mid
80s, but with comfortable dew point values through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A dry, blocking pattern remains in place through the next 7 days,
and potentially beyond into the beginning of week 2. In addition,
with mild air aloft, and dry soil/air in the region, we will most
certainly see large diurnal temperature swings. Lows in the mid to
upper 50s are forecast each day, with highs in the lower to mid 80s
(upper 80s possible Monday).  This will certainly be great weather
for being outdoors, assuming the minute pirate beetles are not
swarming around you.
Early Next Week...all deterministic and ensemble model solutions
continue to show a building upper level ridge overhead bringing
above normal temperatures and continued dry conditions. Both the
NAEFS and ENS ensemble tables show this 500mb ridge to be near or at
the highest end of climatology for the Midwest, resulting in high
confidence warmth and dry weather for the rest of September. If we
don`t receive any more rain at MLI, we would have seen the 6th
driest September on record with only 0.71" rain. Taking a look at
temperatures, the NBM distribution for MLI now has 59% of members
with highs that are 84 degrees or higher. For those wanting summer
warmth but without the oppressive humidity, then next week will be
your ideal weather.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Ongoing high pressure acrs the region will maintain a general
VFR TAF cycle through Friday evening, although will have to
watch for MVFR to IFR fog again at CID and DBQ toward sunrise
Friday morning. Low confidence in this as several of the latest
CAM runs keep good VSBY even at these sites tomorrow morning.
Light north to northwest sfc winds early this evening will back
more to the west and southwest as the night progresses. The
winds may diurnally increase to 8-12 KTs by midday Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate
Prediction Center shows very high probabilities (70%) of above
normal temperatures for the Oct 2nd to Oct 8th timeframe. Normal
highs for this period are in the upper 60s/lower 70s and normal
lows are in the mid to upper 40s. While above normal
temperatures are likely, the humidity levels will be tolerable.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin/Gross
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...Gross

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion