Myrtle, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

378
FXUS63 KSGF 202321
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across the area
  at times through Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall and
  lightning will be the main risk. Where multiple storms are
  able to track over the same locations there cloud be a
  localized minor flooding risk.
- Seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will occur
  at times through the coming week as a sires of an upper level
  disturbances move through the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A few storms will continue to move southeast along and southwest
of a Neosho to Cassville, Missouri line this afternoon.
Lightning and brief locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk
with the storms. Elsewhere remains dry across the area this
afternoon behind the shower and storms that moved through the
area earlier this morning. An isolated shower or storm may be
possible across the rest of the area this afternoon but much of
the area should remain dry as a cap has developed and the better
lift moves off to the east.
An upper level trough will move east across the central plains
this evening into tonight and across the area on Sunday.
Uncapped MUCAPE will develop and spread east across the area
this evening and tonight as a low level jet also develops and
move east across the area ahead of the trough. Uncapped MUCAPE
of around 1000 to 1800 J/kg will develop this evening as the
deep layer shear around 20kts. Lift within the low level jet
and ahead the trough combined with the uncapped MUCAPE will
result in scattered storms developing as early as 5pm this
evening and could linger into the overnight hours. With the the
low level jet and advection convection may redevelop over areas
that where affected by early storms which could lead to a
localized flooding risk. A few of the stronger storms could be
capable of small hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Overall
the storms will be scattered in nature but there could be an
area will multiple storms develop close to each other and
develop into a small storm complex this evening and moves off to
the southeast overnight with a localized flooding risk the main
risk.
Storms may be ongoing across parts of the area Sunday morning,
but should start to dissipate by mid to late morning. Additional
storms are then expected to develop mid Sunday afternoon into
the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk
with the storms on Sunday but a few of the stronger storms could
have wind gusts up to 40 mph and small hail.
Highs will warm into the upper 70s to the middle 80s today and
Sunday with lows in the middle 60s tonight and Sunday night.
Outside thunderstorms winds will generally be out of the south
to southwest today through Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An active weather pattern will remain over the region next week
as a sires of upper level troughs move through the region
bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to the area at times
with the passage of each trough. The first wave will move
through the region later Monday into Tuesday, some scattered
storms will be possible during the day Monday but a complex of
storms could develop across the plains and track southeast into
portions of the area late Monday into early Tuesday. Some gusty
winds could be possible if any line segments can develop within
this activity and can track into the area.
The troughs will also bring seasonable temperatures to the area
next week as highs the ensemble model members are in fairly
good agreement of highs the middle 70s to the lower 80s. There
will be breaks in the rain and some days the rain may be more
scattered in nature. the models are in fairly good agreement
with the trough early next week but start to differ some on the
timing and track of the troughs mid to late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
For the 00z TAFS, expecting convection to refire over the area
as the low level jet starts to increase into the region early
this evening. JLN/SGF/BBG will all have the potential for some
thunderstorms which may limit flight categories to the MVFR and
possibly some IFR within the convection. Additional convection
will then be possible on Sunday afternoon.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion