Narka, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

153
FXUS63 KTOP 231108
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
608 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms build into the area this morning, some of which
  could be strong and produce a brief damaging wind gust, and
  rain rates in excess of an inch an hour.
- Chances for showers and storms continue through the day
  Tuesday (50-60% chance) and into Wednesday (20-40%) before
  dry conditions return Wednesday night.
- Dry and mild conditions expected Thursday into early next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Two complexes of storms are converging on our area this morning.
The first one, currently moving across southern Kansas is
associated with surface trough and low-level jet. The second
one, currently over southeast Nebraska is associated with cold
pool surging south.
Models have been in good agreement with these features
intersecting northeast Kansas by around sunrise. The threat for
severe storms is very low and the window for any severe threat
is very narrow. From around 5 am to 7 am CAMs continue to depict
around 1,500 J/Kg of elevated CAPE and steep elevated lapse
rates. However, with significant boundary- layer CIN in place,
it would be a tall order for stronger wind gusts to reach the
surface and with a lack of shear (20 knots or less of effective
shear) hail is also not probable.
What is more likely is heavy rainfall. With that elevated
instability and PWATs around 1.75 inches, rain rates in excess
of an inch an hour are favored in stronger storms early this
morning. Instability and stronger lift will move quickly out of
the area by mid-morning and the higher rain rates with them.
Generally a half inch to as much as an inch and quarter are
favored across the area. Some isolated locations that experience
the strongest storms could see higher amounts.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
through the rest of the day and into Wednesday as the main
upper-level low slowly pivots over Kansas before exiting the
area Wednesday night. Thereafter, an upper- level ridge builds
into the central Plains and we are favored to remain dry and
mild through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Generally MVFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with
rain showers. Thunderstorms moved through this morning and there
are still some clusters across portions of eastern Kansas, but
lightning is rapidly diminishing across the area. While a few
lightning strikes can`t be ruled out, the prevailing weather
type today will be rain showers. Precipitation will be most
widespread this morning and become much more scattered this
afternoon/evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion