Nemo, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

917
FXUS63 KUNR 252001
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
201 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through much of
  next week
- Elevated fire weather conditions at times in the period
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Upper air models show ridge over the Rockies and into the
northern/central plains today, with upper trough over the Great
Lakes region. Surface analysis shows frontal boundary running
from eastern MT along the ND/SD border this afternoon. Satellite
shows clear skies over the FA. Temperatures currently sit in the
upper 70s and 80s with light and variable winds.
Upper ridge flattens out on Friday as upper trough skirts across
southern Canada. Associated dry weak cold front passes through
during the day Friday. NAM/GFS show 2-3mb/3hr press rises
bringing breezy northwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph at times.
Will also see a slight drop in temperatures later Friday into
Saturday, though still at or above normal. Upper ridge once again
builds back over the central and northern plains the remainder of
the weekend into next week. Models show very little available
moisture through the period, so expect a dry 7 days. Long range
models show upper trough digging into the western CONUS later next
week, so we may see a pattern shift towards cooler temperatures
and precipitation chances by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1116 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
will generally be variable at RAP until a cold front moves through
towards the end of the period. At GCC, winds are expected to
shift from southerly this evening to northerly as the
aformentioned cold front move through tomorrow morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 143 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Sustained dry weather with above normal temperatures will bring
elevated fire weather conditions to the area over the next 7 days.
MinRH will drop to the upper teens over northeastern WY and
southwestern SD Friday. MinRH in the 20s will be common elsewhere
through the forecast period. Breezy winds will occur at times, but
particularly Friday with a dry cool front passage may bring wind
gusts near 40mph over parts of the western SD plains.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Dye

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion