Newburg, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS63 KILX 090732
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
232 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will climb through the week, reaching the upper 80s to
  low 90s later this week into the weekend.
- Little to no precipitation is expected the next 7 days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Surface ridging remains in place over central Illinois early this
morning, keeping winds light and temperatures seasonally cool. An
upper trough located over the eastern Dakotas into the central
Plains states will lift through the upper and middle Mississippi
Valleys later today, bringing an increase in mid to high clouds here
locally. Any chances for precipitation will remain north of the area
due to our very dry airmass.
Upper ridging builds over the central US by midweek, bringing
another glimpse of summer after our brief taste of fall.
Temperatures will climb the next several days, reaching the upper
80s to low 90s late this week through the weekend. Deep mixing
favored by the operational GFS continues to show maximum
temperatures approaching 100 degrees over the weekend through
early next week. However, this appears to be overdone and largely
driven by recent dry conditions. The National Blend of Models
(NBM) shows mean and 50th percentile temperatures through the
weekend topping out in the low 90s which seems more reasonable.
Temperature spreads by late this weekend into early next week are
quite large due to some differences in the pattern evolution. The
ECMWF continues to show an upper cut off low propagating
southwestward into the eastern Great Lakes Region and sending a
backdoor cold front southward into the area. However, the 00Z run
has shifted the track of this further east from previous runs with
the GFS still insisting this feature stays in New England area.
If the ECMWF plays out temperatures could be several degrees
cooler than current forecasts as a result of increased cloudiness
and even a small chance for light rain.
The summer-like warmth looks to stick around for a bit as
temperature and precipitation outlooks through the middle to end of
the month favor warmer and drier than normal conditions. This will
undoubtedly act to worsen drought conditions over central and
southeast parts of the state.
NMA
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle. Occasional
high clouds will overspread the regional terminals as an upper-
level disturbance pushes across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Low-
level winds will veer southerly later this morning as high
pressure begins to depart.
MJA
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion