Northeast, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

832
FXUS64 KOHX 251123
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Medium rain and thunderstorm chances through today. Storms will
  produce heavy rain with a low chance of localized minor
  flooding.
- Low rain chances for the eastern third of the area over the
  weekend. Most of the area will be dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Showers and storms continue this evening with a focus in the
northwest which is in the vicinity of an elongated, weak surface low
ahead of the positive-tilted upper trough. The surface front will
begin to move into the western portion of the area around dawn and
progress eastward through the afternoon hours. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible even after the surface front
moves through as the upper trough lags behind. The moisture doesn`t
look as rich on Thursday compared to Tuesday and Wednesday. PWAT
values will be in the 1.4-1.7" range. CAMs do show some pockets of 1-
2" rainfall totals through Thursday evening, but we should be able
to handle this without any major flooding issues.
As the trough axis approaches the area, some energy will be
cutoff and left behind. Where this happens is still a little
uncertain. It will be close enough to the area to continue the low
chance of showers for the plateau on Friday. Football games Friday
night should not be a washout for those on the plateau as any
showers around will decrease after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The low rain chances will continue through the weekend as some
upper level energy remains in the region. As we move
into next week, eyes will be in the Atlantic as two potential
tropical systems begin their northern track into the mid latitudes.
Some of the moisture from the tropical systems might be bled into
our eastern half of the area producing some low rain chances.
Otherwise, once we get through Thursday evening, the majority of the
area looks like it will be dry through the rest of the forecast.
Conditions will be comfortable on Friday and Saturday with lows in
the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. As we get to Sunday
and into next week, temperatures look to be a couple degrees above
normal to end September with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Variable conditions are expected through the morning, but mainly
MVFR cigs/vsbys for BNA and MQY, and mainly IFR at CKV, SRB, and
CSV. Improvement to VFR will occur area-wide by 19Z, but brief
impacts from showers and storms will then be possible through the
afternoon. A front will pass through the area by this evening and
plenty of post-frontal moisture will remain. So, conditions will
deteriorate after 00Z as cigs/vsbys drop with areas of stratus
and fog.
Winds will be light, mainly southwest today, shifting to northwest
as the front passes this afternoon and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  63  82  60 /  60  20  10  10
Clarksville    80  59  81  56 /  50  10  10   0
Crossville     74  60  74  57 /  70  30  30  20
Columbia       81  61  80  58 /  60  30  10  10
Cookeville     77  62  76  58 /  60  30  10  10
Jamestown      75  61  74  58 /  70  20  10  20
Lawrenceburg   80  61  78  57 /  60  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   81  63  79  59 /  60  30  10  10
Waverly        78  57  79  55 /  50  20  10   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....13

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion