933 FXUS63 KOAX 280857 AFDOAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 357 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures will continue into next week with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s.
- Dry conditions persist through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Surface analysis shows the "cool" front currently draped from south of Wichita to KC and continuing east to Chicago. This leaves the OAX CWA in the cool sector. Temperatures are cooler than they`ve been in three weeks. Saturday`s lows were set just before midnight and numbers continue to slip into the 40s this morning.
Already - in western Nebraska - southerly return flow has begun to develop as the center of the surface high meanders into western Iowa. While temps did hit a minor setback on Saturday, reports of the warming streak`s end have been greatly exaggerated. With the cloud-less skies and southeasterly winds of 5-15 mph, temps should improve by 0F (south) to 10F (north). Max temps should manage mid to upper 80s. Not bad for September 28th when climatological normals are closer to mid-70s.
There will be another plume of wildfire smoke slowly wafting over the mid-Missouri Valley today, leaving the blue skies milky. Very little surface smoke is expected and, as such, limited impacts.
Temps climb another couple of degrees warmer on Monday afternoon with the continued sunshine and warm air advection. Tuesday brings an uptick in cloud cover and a drop in forecast temps. Forcing for ascent is tied to H5 diffluence. Precip is not expected.
In fact, dry conditions and high temps in the 80s will persist into the weekend. The 00Z global models suggest southwest flow will bring precipitation chances to the area and an opportunity to break the warm spell by the weekend or early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will remain light overnight, shifting from the northeast to the southeast Sunday morning.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...KG
NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion