Odessa, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

693
FXUS64 KMAF 170812
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Low to medium (10-40%) shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday
  through Saturday, mainly in the higher terrain and northern
  Permian Basin. At the moment, the highest chances of rain are
  forecast to be Thursday afternoon before chances (10-30%)
  decrease again late week and into the weekend.
- Highs remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, rising into the low-
  to- mid 90s for most by the end of the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The short term period features an upper high over northern Mexico
with a trough moving across the northern United States leaving
West Texas and eastern New Mexico in westerly to northwesterly
flow. The high is not very strong but should prevent most
convection from developing across the area with the exception of
the mountains with help of orographic lift. Temps will be near
normal reaching the 80s to near 90 degrees.
The upper trough to our north moves east tomorrow pushing a cold
front into the South Plains. The will probably not make it to the
Permian Basin but could be close enough to give southeastern New
Mexico and the northern Basin a chance for some rainfall. Temps
Thursday are similar to today, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The upper high over Mexico remains in place through the weekend.
Persistent southerly flow from the high gradually increases
temperatures as highs climb into the lower 90s on Saturday
and become well above normal reaching the mid to upper 90s on
Sunday. A trough rounding the top of the high and dropping into
North Texas could cause some isolated showers and storms to form
in the eastern Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening.
A second trough quickly follows the first moving into East Texas
Monday and pushing a cold front through. The arrival of the front
on Monday may be too late in the day to see much cooler
temperatures, hopefully Tuesday and Wednesday will be noticeably
cooler with 80s high temperatures feeling more seasonal. The
trough and associated front could keep rain chances in the
eastern Basin and lower Trans Pecos Mon/Tue. Deterministic models
feeding into the ensemble NBM are showing a great deal of
uncertainty during this time frame so confidence is low in the
forecast for early next week.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeasterly winds
continue to be expected the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  66  90  65 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 87  64  88  65 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                   90  68  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            89  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           79  62  80  62 /  20  10  20  10
Hobbs                    84  62  86  62 /  10  10  20  20
Marfa                    81  57  83  58 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  67  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                   87  66  88  67 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                     88  65  90  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion