Ortiz, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

292
FXUS65 KPUB 141118
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A drying and warming trend will set in as we move towards the
  start of the week.
- Cold overnight temperatures may bring frost to the San Luis
  Valley, both early this morning and overnight tonight.
- Another cool down and more chances for showers and
  thunderstorms arriving mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Today and Tonight...
With the upper-level trough axis now moving past to our east, today
should be a generally quiet day across SE Colorado, after a cool and
potentially frosty start to the morning in the San Luis Valley.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with 70s
to near-80 over the plains and high-60s for the valleys. Meanwhile,
mostly sunny skies will remain in place along with mostly dry
conditions. Only chance for precipitation will be for a few
lingering showers over and near the Palmer Divide, late this morning
and into midday. Any precipitation is expected to largely dwindle
through the afternoon. Cool again tonight, with 40s-50s out east and
30s across the high valleys. May see another chance of frost over
portions of the SLV again.
Monday...
Temperatures should noticeably warm on Monday, as dry westerly flow
settles in over the region with Colorado sitting between upper-level
systems. High temps over the plains will range from the 80s to near-
90, while the valleys climb into the 70s. The area is expected to
remain dry and generally free of any precipitation, with dwindling
low-level moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Monday Night Through Wednesday.
Near to slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, with lows dipping down into
the 30s over the San Luis Valley, and 50s over the plains. A messy-
troughy pattern is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwest
flow aloft ahead of the trough on Tuesday will mean near normal
temperatures and the return of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain. Highs in the 80s are
expected over the plains, with temperatures climbing into the 70s
for our mountain valleys. A cold front looks to pass through
sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with general
troughiness and northwest flow aloft remaining over the region
throughout the day on Wednesday. This will mean below normal highs
for most of us, along with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday Onwards..
Forecast confidence is not high through this period, as we`ll be on
the eastern periphery of a ridge building over the western conus,
with a low diving south across the northern plains. Some model
solutions keep us more under the influence of the building ridge,
with near normal highs and mainly dry conditions for at least
Thursday and Friday. Others bring the low as far south and west as
the Colorado/Kansas Border by Friday, which would likely increase
precip chances and keep our temperatures cooler than normal. Most
solutions do eject the northern plains low out to our east by around
the Saturday timeframe, putting us under the influence of the ridge
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period for all three
stations, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS. There will be a slight chance (less
than 30%) for brief fog and and IFR ceilings and visibilities around
KALS over the next couple of hours, though confidence was too low to
include in the TAF at this time. North winds are expected at all
three stations through much of the morning hours, with typical
diurnal patterns developing generally after 21Z or so in the
afternoon today.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ070-071.
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion