554 FXUS62 KMFL 211113 AFDMFLArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 713 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through the period with deeper moisture gradually returning to the area. Coastal showers and storms have persisted for the early portion of the night, and these will likely begin again early this morning and continue into the afternoon. Highest rain chances will remain across southern portions of the area where deep layer moisture is maximized.
Additional chance for overnight and morning coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday. As the day progresses and daytime heating increases, showers and storms will develop over land and push towards interior and southwest Florida through the evening hours.
High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the 70s.
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.LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper level trough near the Great Lakes is forecast to slowly extend southward towards the southeastern US early next week. By mid to late week, the trough transitions into a cutoff low across the central US where it will slowly drift towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas. This could lead to a weak boundary stalled across central Florida and potentially facilitate additional moisture transport across South Florida through the week. PWATs will remain in the 2.0- 2.2 inch range which is more typical for this time of year. East- northeast flow will prevail across South Florida through this time period which will give the east coast breeze the upper hand in dominating convective initiation, and will keep the area of maximum rain chances across interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon. Partly sunny conditions prevail during the morning hours with isolated coastal showers possible across Southeast Florida. Thunderstorm development is expected across interior areas during the each afternoon as sea breezes push inland and we reach maximum daytime heating. Slightly drier air might move into the region towards the end of the week as the boundary has the potential to pass south of the area. This could drop rain chances for Friday into the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with overnight lows in the 70s.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Generally VFR conditions through the period. VCSH/VCTS could result in brief periods of MVFR/IFR, but confidence is too low at this time to add TEMPOs. Easterly flow will prevail. &&
.MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Despite lower rain chances this weekend, a few showers and storms may develop across local waters. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 78 89 78 / 50 50 70 40 West Kendall 89 76 89 76 / 60 40 70 40 Opa-Locka 90 78 90 77 / 60 50 60 40 Homestead 88 77 88 76 / 50 50 60 40 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 88 77 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 89 78 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 91 78 91 77 / 60 50 60 40 West Palm Beach 88 77 89 77 / 50 40 60 40 Boca Raton 89 77 90 77 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 76 90 76 / 40 30 60 40
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.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...ATV
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion