Papalote, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS64 KCRP 230533
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Low chance (15-30%) of showers today, increasing to medium
  chances (30-70%) Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms are still
possible this afternoon, mainly across the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads. This will be much like the previous few days
where most locations will remain dry and a few locations could see
heavy rain.
The big weather story will be the approach of a cold front. Yes, I`m
officially calling this boundary a cold front. Will we be cold
behind it? Of course not--it`s South Texas in September--but it
looks like temperatures will drop almost 10 degrees across the area
late this week so we`ll call that a win. Another bit of good news
with this front is the increased chances for rain. Timing still
remains a little uncertain but most guidance has been trending
toward the rain arriving Wednesday night to Thursday morning so we
will keep increased rain chances (30-70%) across the area Wednesday
through Thursday night. A few locations could see high rainfall
rates and maybe even some strong to severe storms Wednesday into
Thursday. Winds will begin to the shift to the north/northeast by
Thursday. Uncertainty still remains in whether the front will push
completely through or if it will stall and wash out as it slips
through the area. Current thinking is that it will be moving south
of us by the weekend, lowering rain chances as slightly drier air
filters in. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler through the
weekend , with highs in the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s
over the Brush Country.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Brief MVFR conditions will be possible between 10-14Z Tuesday
morning for ALI and VCT. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers
and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday morning along the coast, then
shifting inland toward ALI with the sea breeze in the afternoon. The
chance of convection is a little higher for VCT where there is a 30%
chance. Therefore, included a PROB30 for VCT. Given the low
probability for ALI and CRP, will leave out the mention of showers
or thunderstorms for now. If convection where to move across a TAF
site, it will be brief with minimal aviation impacts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow will continue through
Wednesday night before shifting to the north/northeast briefly on
Thursday as a cold front moves across the waters before returning to
onshore flow Thursday night or Friday morning. Medium to high
(30-70%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected daily
across the waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  78  93  77 /  20   0  40  50
Victoria          95  75  93  71 /  30   0  60  70
Laredo           101  78 100  77 /   0   0  10  60
Alice             98  75  97  75 /  20   0  30  40
Rockport          92  80  90  75 /  30  10  40  70
Cotulla          101  77  98  73 /   0   0  40  70
Kingsville        96  76  95  76 /  20   0  30  40
Navy Corpus       90  82  89  79 /  30  10  40  60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion