Parkman, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

850
FXUS61 KCAR 031334
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
934 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain to our south through the weekend
into Monday. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930am Update...
Small tweaks to temperatures, dewpoints, and winds to account
for current conditions. Sunny day and warming up fast this
morning, with readings on the way to around 70 for many areas.
Just a couple innocent mid/high clouds.
Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure remains centered south of the region
today through Saturday. A frontal boundary will approach
northern Maine later tonight, then stall across the region
Saturday. Aloft, a disturbance will approach from the northwest
later tonight then clip northern areas Saturday. Patchy, mostly
river valley, fog is possible early this morning. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies will occur across the region today. Expect
partly cloudy skies across northern areas tonight, with isolated
showers also possible across northern Aroostook county. Mostly
clear skies are expected Downeast tonight. Partly sunny skies
along with isolated showers remain possible across northern
areas Saturday, with still mostly sunny skies Downeast. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to around 70
across the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will range
through the 40s to around 50. High temperatures Saturday will
range from the upper 60s to around 70 north, to the lower to mid
70s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure lifting up through the Plains Saturday night
combined with high pressure to our south will lift a warm front
north into Eastern Canada Saturday night. We will be on the
eastern tip of this warm front and may have a broken deck of mid
and high clouds across the north.
The warm front will lift north of the area on Sunday. The high to
our south combined with the low well to our west will usher in
warmer and more humid air on Sunday. Highs will be well into the 70s
and dew points in the mid 50s making it feel like late summer.
The warm and humid air along with a light southerly breeze will
bring an unseasonably warm night Sunday night with lows in the low
to mid 50s.
We will be deep within upper ridging on Monday which will bring us
mid-summer like warmth and humidity. Inland highs will make a run
for 80 and dew points will climb to the mid to upper 50s and may hit
60s in a few spots under a mostly sunny sky.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday night will be another very warm night as we remain in
upper ridging and a southwesterly breeze above high pressure to
our south.
A cold front will approach on Tuesday bringing increasing clouds.
The front may begin to push showers into far northwestern areas
during the afternoon. Otherwise, Tuesday will be another very warm
day with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The cold front will cross the area Tuesday night. A sharp line of
surface convergence combined with some lift ahead of a trough
approaching from the west will bring a band of showers across
the area. Rain looks likely everywhere as the front moves
through. However, the front will be quick and progressive and
any rain will probably only last a couple hours at each
location. Preliminary outlooks on rain amounts are for around a
quarter to a half inch. The ECMWF is favoring most of the rain
in the northwest while the GFS is favoring the higher amounts
over east central areas.
By early Wednesday morning most of the rain will be across the
southern part of our area as the front continues to push south. The
rain will taper off over the south around midday to early
afternoon Wednesday. Northern areas will become partly cloudy
with a gusty northwesterly breeze as much cooler air pushes in.
On Thursday we will be back to fall with a gusty chilly breeze
and some sunshine.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today through tonight. Isolated showers possible
late tonight north. Occasional MVFR possible across northern
area with isolated showers Saturday. Otherwise, VFR Saturday.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots
today. Southwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...VFR south. MVFR north. Light SW wind.
Sunday...VFR south. MVFR becoming VFR north. Light SW wind.
Sunday night...VFR. Light SW wind.
Monday...VFR. LIght SW wind.
Monday night...VFR. Light SW wind. Chance for SW wind shear.
Tuesday...VFR dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR north. VFR or MVFR
over the south. SW wind. Chance of SW wind shear.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through Saturday.
SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas should be below SCA Saturday night through
Tuesday. Humid air over the cooler water may result in some fog
and mist Sunday through Monday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RHs today are expected to drop to the 30-40%
range. Good RH recovery expected during the overnight hours.
Isolated showers possible across northern Aroostook county late
tonight into Saturday, then again later Saturday night into
Sunday. Otherwise, a warming trend expected Saturday through
early next week though mainly dry. A cold front Tuesday night
into Wednesday is likely to bring some rain to the area but it
will be a brief rainfall with only a quarter to perhaps locally
a half inch in some areas.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures should enter a warming trend through Monday with
highs expected to be well above average. The warmest day is
likely to be on Monday where highs should be in the upper 70s
to around 80. High temperatures should be close to and may
break the records of 74 in Caribou, 73 in Houlton, 82 in
Millinocket, and 84 in Bangor.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/Norcross
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Foisy/Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Foisy/Norcross/Bloomer
Fire Weather...Norcross/Melanson
Climate...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion