Pawlet, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

421
FXUS61 KBTV 110601
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
201 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry frontal boundary will result in a breezy, but generally
pleasant day. An upper level disturbance will bring some cloud cover
across the region Saturday, but the better chances for precipitation
will be on Sunday. Even then, rain appears likely to be hit or miss
and unlikely to bring needed rain. Dry conditions will prevail for
the remainder of the period with warming temperatures for the middle
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 159 AM EDT Thursday...A dry frontal boundary will take place
today. A shower may spark near the Adirondacks towards evening, but
any accumulation would be minor. Gradients with the front will
support some breezy conditions, but are not substantial enough to
have too much beyond 20 mph. Although there`s not much rain with the
front, it should be enough to keep dewpoints up as well that should
keep relative humidity values above 40 percent. Overall, it should
be very pleasant as temperatures climb from the 40s (locally upper
30s in cold hollows) into the 70s.
The passage of this front will reinforce cool conditions, and dry
air will filter in overnight. With high pressure building in, we
should manage strong radiational cooling. Anticipate widespread 40s,
with mid 30s to around 40 in the Adirondacks and the Northeast
Kingdom extending down into parts of central Vermont. Any frost
looks localized in the Adirondacks, but a bit more widespread in the
Northeast Kingdom.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 159 AM EDT Thursday...Cool high pressure overhead on Friday
will result in seasonably cool conditions in the mid 60s to lower
70s. With little in the way of clouds or winds, it should be
gorgeous. Overnight, a sharp upper level trough will dig through the
region. Initially, this will increase cloud cover, but dry surface
conditions remain with high pressure. There could be virga with
returns viewable on radar, but there should not be anything that
reaches the ground. A warm night with 40s to about 50 will unfold
with Saturday being quite a bit cloudier.
On Saturday, the vort max will begin to slide east, but a
surface trough will settle in. There should be enough lingering
forcing to produce a few showers once marginally conducive
moisture is present by midday. Anything that might fall Saturday
afternoon will likely produce little.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 159 AM EDT Thursday...Trends in the 00Z NWP guidance are
towards an open trough passage Saturday night through Sunday as
compared to previous runs which closed the system off. This in turn,
combined with very dry antecedent conditions leads the forecast to
point towards lower chances for precipitation for the period, but
given some moisture, northwest flow, and a strong mid-level
shortwave, there`s still a good chance for some scattered showers so
will maintain chance PoPs for the period. After that for next week,
we`re back under surface high pressure and a building upper ridge,
so drought conditions will continue. Temps continue below normal
through the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows
40s/50s, but trend warmer to normal or slightly above by mid-week
with highs solidly in the mid/upper 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Outside of a period of LIFR at KMPV from
09- 12Z, VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the
next 24 hours. A dry cold front will bring a SCT-BKN mid-level
deck through the area from north to south through the day,
becoming SKC again by 00Z. Light winds overnight trend northerly
by daybreak and increase through the morning to 8-12kts with
some isolated gusts up to 18kts in the afternoon. After 00Z,
winds return to nearly calm except locally SE at 7kts at KRUT.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ004.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion