Paxville, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

445
FXUS62 KCAE 251046
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
646 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid today with increasing risk for showers and
thunderstorms today into Friday as a cold front approaches the
area. The chance of rain then continues into the weekend and
early next week with lower temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and humid conditions continue today.
- Chances for showers and storms return to the area.
Today and tonight: An upper trough and associated surface front
over the Mississippi Valley are expected to crawl toward the
forecast area. As these features approach, southwesterly flow
increases and brings in an uptick in moisture and keeps
temperatures warm for one more day. PWATs are forecast to
increase to near 2" across the area ahead of the frontal
boundary. Additionally, a chance for showers and storms moves
into the area this afternoon into the evening. The highest
chances for activity in the near term look to be in the western
Midlands and upper CSRA. Latest HREF guidance shows somewhat of
a downtrend in mean CAPE values, closer to 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear
values are forecast to be in the 20-30 kt range, with the
highest amounts in the western portions of the forecast area.
This could lead to an isolated strong storm to marginally
severe, mainly in the western portions of the forecast area.
Wind and heavy rain are expected to be the main threats with any
stronger storms today. Rain chances continue overnight, but
diminish some after sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances increase on Friday and continue into Saturday as
  a trough and cold front slowly approach the forecast area.
- High temps much cooler in the mid 80s on Friday and upper 70s
  and low 80s on Saturday.
Guidance remains in decent agreement on the synoptic pattern for
Friday and Saturday. Upper level trough axis and associated surface
cold front is expected to approach the region on Friday. Strong
southwesterly flow aloft is likely to result in copious moisture
advecting into the region, with near 2" PWs forecast across the area
during the day on Friday. These values are ~150%+ of normal for this
time of year. Forcing aloft will be robust, with weak shortwaves
pushing northward downstream of the trough axis, with weak height
falls helping to augment this. HREF mean soundings reveal ~1000+
j/kg of MLCAPE developing by early Friday afternoon, with this CAPE
being characterized as skinny CAPE. The moist & uncapped, unstable
airmass should favor the quick development of showers and
thunderstorms by midday (at the latest) Friday with guidance showing
widespread coverage through the afternoon hours. ECM/GFS explicitly
show rainfall arriving in parts of the area between 8a and 12p on
Friday. As such, highs will be modulated by how much cloud cover
exists early in the day on Friday & when storms initiate. There is
uncertainty in this, and I think highs may trend down a bit with the
next forecast cycle as higher resolution guidance comes in.
By this point on Friday, the upper level trough is forecast to begin
slowing down to our west and taking on a more negative tilt as it
does so into Saturday. There remains some discrepancy with whether
or not the trough cuts off and becomes a closed low, but guidance is
generally in good agreement on the placement and orientation of the
trough axis and upper level jet associated with it. This should
favor widespread cloud cover and rainfall on Saturday as we`ll be
solidly in the right-entrance region of an upper level jet streak in
addition to having high PWs in place. Highs are likely to be in the
upper 70s as a result of this, and expect the NBM to trend towards
this over the next several runs of guidance. Given cloud cover and
copious moisture in place, lows will likely remain slightly above
normal in the mid to upper 60s both nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Difficult forecast on tap through early next week as our upper
  level trough hangs around.
- Keeping an eye on Invest 94L in the northeastern Caribbean
  Sea.
Well...the forecast in the long term certainly looks interesting and
active. There are numerous caveats with that, but guidance continues
to hone in on a potentially impactful period of weather late this
weekend and into early next week. Guidance has, for many days,
struggled severely with how to handle the upcoming trough, its
position, and how it evolves. However, a clearer picture is
beginning to emerge, with global models starting to pinpoint a slow
moving trough axis settling along the eastern side of the
Appalachians by Sunday morning. As it does so, what is currently 94L
is forecast to be settled into the Bahamas, potentially as a
tropical cyclone. Guidance is also split on how strong this feature
will be but they are in much better agreement on having this in the
Bahamas at this point. From here, there is significant uncertainty
as to how this interacts with the upper level trough. However, it is
looking increasingly likely that the upper level trough over our
forecast area will interact with this tropical entity in some form
or fashion, continuing to pull moisture into the area and at least
yield widespread clouds and rain chances across the area. It is
difficult to near impossible to predict much beyond this as 94L is
still just a tropical wave in the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Just
continue to keep an eye on the latest forecast as guidance should
continue to hone in on what exactly to expect, especially as we get
better upper level observations fed into model guidance. It would be
irrational to try and forecast anything beyond this; though, it does
look like our first big taste of Fall could be on the way at the end
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period with
chances for rain or storms in the afternoon and evening.
Satellite imagery and observations show that stratus has
developed this morning, affecting CUB, CAE, and OGB. Confidence
is low that the stratus makes it to AGS or DNL, however. Expect
this stratus to linger through about 14z or so. After the
stratus clears, expect mainly VFR conditions through the rest of
the TAF period. Some showers and storms are forecast to move
toward the area this afternoon and evening, but uncertainty
remains in how much coverage and how far the rain makes it east.
Will leave the PROB30 groups going for AGS and DNL for now and
continue to hold off at CAE, CUB, and OGB for the time being.
Winds pick up out of the southwest after about 15z, gusting to
15-20 kts at times before diminishing after 00z again.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture continues to increase
leading to likely rain chances and possible widespread
restrictions into the weekend.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion