894 FXUS66 KPDT 092101 AFDPDTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 201 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.DISCUSSION...Radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing across the region. Upper low is creating enough instability with abundant moisture to keep storms pulsing through the rest of the afternoon. Will see the greatest chance (25-35%) of thunderstorms near the Bend/Central OR region. Heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally gusty winds from strong storms will be the primary threat going through today and the next couple of days.
The pattern will continue through Thursday as the low continues to push through the PacNW. Showers and thunderstorms embedded with abundant lightning will continue to be the main story as the weather disturbance progresses and brings cooler temperatures along the process. High temps will taper down to seasonal normal to around 5 degrees below normal, with some places in the area only reaching the high 70s to low 80s for their highs. Training storms along with slow motion storms across the region will cause flooding concerns through mid week. Scar burned areas are mostly of concern, but other areas with steep terrain and general flood prone areas will need to monitor for potential hazards.
We`ll go through a more transitional weather phase going into the weekend, as the area will be in-between two weather systems when the current trough exits the region. Saturday will see us in a bit of a dry break thanks to the transition with a temporary ridge like pattern. This will be short lived before the next weather system enters the area at the beginning of next week when the next trough quickly makes its way in. Guidance has good confidence (60-80% chance) that we will re-enter another wet pattern, but confidence in clusters and NBM falls right after Sunday and how it wants to handle the strength of the system throughout next week. Regardless, expect another round of widespread precip starting the new work week.
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AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Showers and storms are popping up across the region. Not too confident about direct hits with airways, but have put in VCSH for YKM/BDN/RDM. Have also entered PROB30 for the airways across the Columbia Basin in the overnight hours. Winds will be light except for areas near strong storms that could produce erratic wind gusts.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 57 81 58 77 / 40 30 70 70 ALW 61 82 62 77 / 40 20 60 70 PSC 57 85 59 79 / 30 20 40 50 YKM 58 86 58 84 / 30 30 20 20 HRI 57 84 60 79 / 40 20 50 60 ELN 53 84 56 81 / 20 30 10 20 RDM 47 74 49 72 / 50 70 60 50 LGD 52 79 53 74 / 30 40 80 80 GCD 49 75 52 69 / 40 70 80 80 DLS 60 81 62 76 / 30 40 30 30
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.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for ORZ503-505-506.
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ORZ509-511.
WA...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...95
NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion