Penwell, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS64 KMAF 222320
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- One more day of warm temperatures are expected as highs Tuesday
  plateau at ~ 10-12 F above normal, making Tuesday possibly the
  warmest day the rest of the year.
- Increasing chances (55%-65%) of showers and thunderstorms,
  mainly Tuesday night and Wednesday, with best chances east of
  the Pecos and over the lower Trans Pecos. Highs will drop ~ 15 F
  Wednesday.
- High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware
  Mountains as well as at Carlsbad Caverns National Park tomorrow
  night into Wednesday morning. Take caution if driving through
  the area or plan an alternate route.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper-level ridge progressing over our region keeps temperatures
warm for this time of year. Tonight, there is a good possibility we
tie our record nightly low of 74 degrees, set in 2017. Lows tonight
are generally forecast to dip into mid 60s to low 70s. The upper-
level pattern begins to shift Tuesday, as a trough swings from the
Rockies into the Great Plains. The trough sends a cold front
sweeping through our region Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
morning. Ahead of the front, Tuesday is forecast to be another day
of abnormally warm temperatures. Highs are expected to top out in
the 90s to low 100s (primarily in and near the river valleys). As we
transition from ridging to troughing, a couple of passing shortwave
disturbances may aid in the development of isolated showers and
storms over the higher terrain and the northeastern Permian Basin
Tuesday afternoon.
The cold front shall elevate the potential for shower/storm
development within our area Tuesday evening through the rest of the
short term period. At present, rain chances Tuesday evening range
between 20-70% across much of the region. Best odds (40-70%) lie
over the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Given mean layer
instability between 1000-1500 J/kg, deep-layer shear of 30-45 kts,
and mid-level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km, a few storms may become
strong to severe Tuesday evening. The greatest potential to see
strong to severe storms develop will be over the eastern Permian
Basin and Stockton Plateau, with the main threats being large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall resulting in flash
flooding. Aside from rain chances, the approaching cold front will
bring breezy to strong winds to the higher terrain and portions of
southeast New Mexico. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the
Guadalupe Pass and Carlsbad Caverns National Park for late Tuesday
night through Wednesday evening, where sustained winds could range
from 35-45 mph. Otherwise, temperatures Tuesday night settle into
the 60s for most.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Wednesday, a very positively-tilted trough will extend from the
Great Lakes Region WSW to Utah and Colorado, leaving West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under near zonal flow aloft.  At the surface,
the first significant cold front of Autumn will be invading through
the Permian Basin, resulting in high gap winds through GDP.
Convection is likely along the front, although a lack of instablilty
suggests it may be more shower than thunderstorm.  But the biggest
impact will be plunging temperatures.  A combination of CAA, cloud
cover, and rain/evaporative cooling will drop temperatures around 15
F from Tuesday, with highs coming in and average of 5 F below
climatology.  With highs struggling into the upper 70s/lower 80s
most locations, this will be by far the coolest day this forecast.
Wednesday night will likewise be the coolest night this forecast.
Convection will begin tapering off N-S, but CAA will continue.  Lows
will bottom out in the upper 50s/lower 60s most locations.  These
will be the coolest temperatures experienced in some time, although
they`ll still be 3-5 F above normal.
Thursday, a temperature recovery begins as the upper trough exits to
the east, and ridging begins developing from the west.  A cut-off
low begins developing over the southwest CONUS, and will nudge the
ridge east into central Texas over the weekend, after which
southwest flow aloft will develop over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  The net effect of this will be increasing temperatures
through Friday/Saturday, then a slight cooling into next week as
thicknesses decrease w/the approach of the trough.  By Monday
afternoon, highs should be somewhere in the neighborhood of normal,
if not a degree or so below.  Lingering showers and thunderstorms
are possible Thursday afternoon along remnants of the front south of
I-10.  Friday though Monday, best chances of convection each day
will be on the higher terrain west of the Pecos.  Chances will
increase into next week as the upper trough approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions remain at all terminals. Winds remain southerly to
southwesterly through tonight before shifting to the northwest
behind a front during the day on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  98  65  79 /   0  30  70  60
Carlsbad                 68  93  65  78 /  10  20  40  30
Dryden                   72  99  72  88 /   0  10  10  60
Fort Stockton            72  98  67  79 /   0  20  30  60
Guadalupe Pass           66  86  60  70 /  10  20  30  30
Hobbs                    66  92  60  78 /  10  20  60  40
Marfa                    60  90  60  76 /   0  20  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     73  98  67  79 /   0  20  60  60
Odessa                   73  97  66  78 /   0  20  60  50
Wink                     71  97  65  78 /  10  20  50  50
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion