Pequabuck, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

221
FXUS61 KALY 131829
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
229 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The passage of an upper-level disturbance will bring slight
chances for light showers to portions of the region this
afternoon and tomorrow before an omega-type blocking pattern
locks in high pressure and another prolonged period of
regionwide dry conditions. Comfortable, but above normal
temperatures will accompany dry conditions throughout much of
the work week. The next chance for some rain comes towards the
end of the week, but uncertainty in the upcoming pattern gives
low confidence in the details.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery indicates an upper-level shortwave
digging south and east into the eastern Great Lakes with
embedded westerly to northwesterly flow advecting lake-enhanced
moisture in across the region maintaining partly cloudy skies
nearly regionwide. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicates weak
instability across much of eastern New York and western New
England which has contributed additional clouds in the form of
fair weather cumulus especially across the Eastern Catskills,
Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills. HiRes models continue to
indicate the potential for light and highly isolated showers
this afternoon, primarily for the higher terrain of the
Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, and Berkshires, but a
stray sprinkle could reach the Hudson Valley in and around the
Capital District as well. That said, forecast soundings show a
fairly deep layer of low-level dry air courtesy of the
counteracting subsidence provided by the adjacent high that
could mitigate precipitation actually reaching the ground.
Therefore, slight chance PoPs were primarily kept in the
aforementioned regions of higher elevation given upslope flow
could help to moisten the column.
Any showers that develop this afternoon should swiftly dwindle
upon the loss of daytime heating this evening, yielding a dry
overnight period with temperatures falling into the upper 40s to
mid 50s. Pockets of clearing sky could lead to the development
of patchy fog before daybreak tomorrow morning in valley areas,
but coverage is uncertain due to uncertainties in the extent of
clearing. Tomorrow, the uppe-level shortwave will swing through
the region, reinforcing the slight chances for isolated showers
mainly across the southwest Adirondacks and Southern Vermont,
though increasing, yet still meager, instability in the lower-
Mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County could allow
some light showers or sprinkles to develop in these areas as
well. High temperatures will be a little warmer than today given
the expectation for less consistent cloud coverage so expect
values in the upper 60s to near 80.
Upon the exit of the aforementioned shortwave, surface high
pressure swiftly slides into the region from eastern Ontario
Sunday night, encompassing much of our CWA by Monday afternoon.
Simultaneously, a high-amplitude ridge will begin taking shape
upstream over the east-central CONUS. Meanwhile, low pressure
systems will develop over the Dakotas and the Southeast Coast to
form an omega-type block through Wednesday with the ridge
stretching north and eastward across the Northeast. Dry
conditions will therefore remain in place through at least
Wednesday night when the block begins to break down. Highs
Monday will be widely in the low 70s to low 80s before warming a
few degrees to the mid/upper 70s to low 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid/upper 40s to low
50s but a gradual warming trend will see an increase in values
through Wednesday night when lows are widely in the 50s.
The forecast for Thursday and Friday continues to hold some
uncertainty as medium to long-range guidance sees persistent
discrepancies in their solutions for the developing pattern. The
break down of the omega block looks to be accompanied by the
northward progression of the aforementioned coastal low along
the East Coast. However, whether it reaches far enough north to
spread showers into our southern zones remains unseen. General
consensus leans more towards a solution wherein the low stays
far enough to our south that precipitation is kept at bay given
a weakening of the low to the northwest and a building high over
the Southeast that will reinforce the ridge overhead. But there
are outlying solutions wherein the low makes it far enough
north to bring light showers to areas south of Albany on
Thursday, so we did not deviate from the slight chance PoPs
outlined in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield
County by the 13z run of the NBM at this time. For Friday, an
upper- level trough looks to sink south and east towards the
region, sweeping a cold front through from northwest to
southeast. However, the depictions of the position of this
trough are also highly varied in the models and could quite
possibly depend on the evolution of the aforementioned features
on Thursday. Therefore, we also did not stray from the NBM that
had slight chance PoPs outlined mainly in areas north and west
of Albany on Friday. High temperatures on both of these days
will be in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s with lows Thursday
night in the 50s and those Friday night in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle for
KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU with sct-bkn mid level and high clouds with few-
sct cumulus.  An upper level disturbance will produce some isolated
to widely scattered showers 20Z/Sat to 00Z/Sun and VCSH groups were
used at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL with cigs 4-6 kft AGL.  The skies will
gradually clear tonight with developing mist/fog and low stratus.
Confidence was greatest to place some IFR/LIFR mist/fog and low
stratus at KGFL/KPSF from 08Z-13Z/Sun. We kept KALB VFR overnight
and placed some MVFR mist and stratus at KPOU, but if rainfall
occurs KPOU may need to be lowered to IFR levels.  Any mist or fog
should dissipate quickly 12Z-14Z/Sun with VFR conditions returning
to all the TAF sites.  Sct-bkn stratocu or stratus in the 4-6 kft
AGL range may return by the late morning/early pm ahead of the next
cold front/upper level disturbance.  The winds will be south to
southwest at less than 7 KT this afternoon...becoming light to calm
overnight and increase from the west to northwest at less than 7 KT
late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gant
DISCUSSION...Gant
AVIATION...Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion