Piedra, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

277
FXUS65 KGJT 162346
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
546 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and
  north of I-70 Wednesday afternoon.
- Temperatures will hover near normal before a warmup kicks in
  towards the end of the week.
- Moisture returns this weekend but confidence in the extent
  and timing remains low at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A low pressure system remains centered over Wyoming this
afternoon with a front draped over northeast Utah. The front
will continue to progress east/southeast this evening bring
precipitation chances to much of the forecast area. Drier air
is beginning to build in across southeast Utah and southwest
Colorado, so precipitation chances will be harder to come by in
those locations.
Drier air becomes more commonplace tomorrow south of I-70, but
moisture remains in place across northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado. A shortwave trough is progged to provide lift for the
moisture meaning another round of afternoon showers and storms
is likely north of I-70. The CAMs highlight the eastern Uintas
as the main precipitation producers. Coverage will likely be
isolated to scattered elsewhere.
High temperatures tomorrow will be a handful of degrees cooler
behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
High pressure building over the Great Basin Thursday will dry
things out further. Some moisture glancing the northern
mountains spilling over the ridge will produce some cloud cover
and perhaps a stray shower early Thursday morning, but mostly
dry conditions will prevail Thursday. As the axis of the ridge
moves overhead Friday, things remain dry and mild, with
temperatures near normal to slightly over. Some discrepancies in
model solutions Friday have some isolated showers and storms
working east to west over the Four Corners associated with a jet
max down there. Non zero precipitation chances will linger for
the San Juans with this feature in the neighborhood. Breezy
conditions likely develop Saturday and Sunday over the southern
counties too. A digging low in the eastern Pacific tries to
amplify the ridge over the Great Basin Saturday, providing some
forcing to the region, along with a surge of moisture. PWAT
values jump to around 130 percent of normal Saturday, enough to
produce some showers and thunderstorms on the terrain. This
regime hangs on Sunday with showers more widespread across the
mountains. Temperatures stay steady around normal through the
weekend, as we don`t see much of an airmass shift. Clouds and
showers will keep mountain town temperatures variable through
the weekend. Things dry back out early next week under another
Great Basin ridge. This could send temperatures back above
normal by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A stalled frontal boundary is draped across the region,
producing scattered showers and storms near and north of the
I-70 corridor. The main impacts from these storms have been
gusty winds, occasional lightning and brief, heavy downpours.
The upper level forcing will gradually wane this evening, with
rain diminishing from west to east. Expect mostly VFR
conditions with drier air spreading southeast behind the front
tonight.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...BED

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion