085 FXUS62 KTAE 261819 AFDTAEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 219 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Our advertised cold front is currently moving into the far western Florida Panhandle and will move through the area tonight into Saturday. Ahead of the front, a batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to move across south central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. This has largely been stratiform rain with no significant impacts. We`re still keeping our eyes back to the west along the cold front for any redevelopment of showers and storms. Cloud cover has been stubborn to erode for most areas, though we`ve seen pockets of sun peek through from time to time. If enough instability redevelops, then we may see scattered showers and storms flare back up. While the chances of severe weather are very low, there is a bit more shear due to the proximity to the trough, which could lead to a conditional threat of a strong storm or two.
Most onshore showers and storms should fade late this evening and overnight, though some may continue near the coast into the eastern Big Bend and perhaps near Valdosta. Likely, only limited impacts are anticipated. Given the rain today and amount of low- level moisture in place, patchy fog will likely develop across much of the area tonight. While widespread dense fog is not anticipated, some localized thicker fog is possible with about a 30-50% chance of visibility less than 1 mile, especially west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Lows will be in the mid 60s to the northwest to the low 70s in the southeast Big Bend.
The front exits our area to the east on Saturday. Enough moisture remains in place for scattered showers and storms ahead of the front, mainly along the I-75 corridor down into the eastern Big Bend. While there will be ample instability for storms, shear appears a good bit weaker tomorrow, so not expected severe storms, though a strong wind gust can`t be ruled out. Drier air overtakes the rest of the area with PWATs coming down to 1.1 to 1.3 inches for western areas. Highs will be around 85 to 90.
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.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Drier air overspreads the area Sunday with troughing lingering over the southeastern US. As AL94 lifts northward toward the Carolinas early next week, reinforcing dry air and northerly flow will keep us dry through the middle of next week. Where AL94 goes mid to late week remains highly uncertain. However, it is expected that as high pressure builds over the central and northeastern parts of the US, the pressure gradient will tighten, leading to perhaps some breezy but cooler weather late next week. But again, this highly depends on the track and evolution of AL94 mid to late next week which remains low confidence.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
SHRA continue to move through ABY and DHN as of 18z. Some redevelop of SHRA/TSRA is still possible this afternoon at all TAF sites, though it`s dependent on breaks in cloud cover. MVFR/VFR cigs will continue this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA should end for the most part late this evening and overnight at the TAF sites. Fog will likely develop overnight with LIFR/IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys anticipated at all sites. Cigs will be slow to rise after 12z, but all sites should be back to VFR by 16-18z Saturday.
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.MARINE... Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light southerly to southwesterly winds tonight will become gentle northwesterly breezes on Saturday behind a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage Saturday, exiting to the east of our waters. Winds will become moderate early next week as the pressure gradient between AL94 and building high pressure over the central and northeast parts of the US tightens with advisory level winds becoming increasingly likely mid to late next week. Seas will be around 1 to 2 feet through early next week, increasing to 2 to 4 feet mid to late week.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front will exit the forecast area on Saturday with scattered showers and storms still possible near the Suwannee Valley. Somewhat drier air moves into the area behind the front. Winds become northerly to northeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph through the weekend. This will lead to good to high dispersions across the area Sunday and Monday. RH values will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s each afternoon.
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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
As of 1 PM ET this afternoon, about 0.5-1.5 inches of rain as fallen across the Florida counties with around 0.25 inches or less north of the state line. Some heavier pockets have fallen near the coast. This has been beneficial rain for our area. Still could see another 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain before the event wraps up, with higher amounts near the coast and into the southeast Big Bend. But flooding potential is rather minimal. Little to no rain is forecast beyond Saturday.
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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 69 86 68 / 70 50 20 0 Panama City 84 70 87 69 / 90 40 10 0 Dothan 83 66 86 66 / 60 30 10 0 Albany 84 68 86 67 / 60 40 20 0 Valdosta 85 70 86 67 / 60 60 40 10 Cross City 88 71 88 69 / 70 60 60 10 Apalachicola 81 71 85 71 / 90 50 20 10
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.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Young MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young
NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion