Plains, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS64 KLUB 242303
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
603 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Cooler temperatures continue through Friday morning.
- Warmer temperatures return this weekend.
- Dry, apart from slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
   near the New Mexico state line Saturday through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Nice late summer/early fall weather is in order for the short term
period. An upper level trough extending from the southern High
Plains to the Great Lakes will continue to swing to the east. Dry,
cold advection will persist in the low levels behind the departing
trough and associated cold front tonight. Surface high pressure will
move from west to east across the forecast area on Thursday. The end
result is a precip-free forecast with low temperatures tonight and
high temperatures Thursday not too far from normal, a touch below
tonight and a bit above Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Upper level high pressure will move back over the forecast area
Thursday night. The pattern will be fairly amplified with the ridge
extending northward to the central and northern Plains while
upstream a closed low will be centered near the California/Arizona
state line. This pattern will remain stagnant for a couple of days
before the low to the west opens up and lifts northeastward. Models
diverge a bit in their solutions after this (Monday and beyond) but
generally have generally zonal flow aloft with the area between a
ridge centered over northern Mexico and a trough in the northern
stream moving west to east along the CONUS/Canada border. Precip
chances through the period will be confined to western counties in
the Saturday to Monday time frame when some form of southwesterly
flow will be in place on the western flank of the upper ridge and
downstream from the southwestern CONUS low/trough. The rebuilding
ridge will favor temperatures warming to above normal levels with
the highest heights and warmest temperatures Friday through Sunday
when highs will attempt to push toward 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion